Economic Survey documents reveal mixed economic trends

ISLAMABAD: The Economic Survey of Pakistan, set to be unveiled on June 11, promises to shed light on Pakistan’s economic trajectory, showcasing both signs of improvement and areas of concern.

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Among the highlights, an increase in debts and liabilities by a staggering Rs 4,643 billion in the nine months of the fiscal year will be revealed, according to official documents.

The documents reveal that net debt and liabilities have soared to Rs 67,524 billion, with domestic debt witnessing a significant surge of Rs 4,623 billion, reaching Rs 43,432 billion. However, there’s a glimmer of positivity as external debt saw a marginal decline of Rs 89 billion, settling at around Rs 21,941 billion.

Moreover, the survey indicates a 3 per cent rise in fertilizer production during the initial five months of 2024, with sales reaching 2.55 million tonnes, reflecting a steady increase compared to the same period last year.

Cement sales also saw a modest 3 per cent increase during the 11 months of the current financial year, reaching 41.74 million tonnes, while cement exports surged by a remarkable 66 per cent, hitting 6.64 million tonnes.

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In terms of trade, exports surged by 27 per cent in May alone, reaching $2.8 billion, while imports rose by 14 per cent to $4.9 billion, resulting in a nominal change in the trade deficit.

Foreign investment has been a notable highlight, standing at $659 million during July-April, marking a significant 93 per cent increase during this period. Foreign direct investment also rose by 8 per cent to $1.45 billion.

However, the economic growth target of 3.5 per cent fell short, standing at 2.38 per cent, with the industrial sector notably failing to achieve its target growth, registering only 1.21 per cent. Meanwhile, the agricultural sector surpassed expectations with a growth rate of 6.25 per cent.

Crop production figures indicate a mixed performance, with wheat production rising by 11.64 per cent, cotton crop increasing by 108 per cent, rice production seeing a boost of 34.78 per cent, but maize production declining by 10.3 per cent.

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The services sector, despite having a growth target of 3.6 per cent, recorded a growth rate of only 1.2 per cent, indicating a sluggish performance in this segment.