EU’s ‘Chocolate Crisis’ deepens as climate, biodiversity risks threaten food supplies

LONDON: A new report highlights that the EU’s “chocolate crisis” is worsening due to climate change and declining biodiversity, which threaten the stability of key food commodities. According to UK consultancy Foresight Transitions, over two-thirds of the EU’s imports of cocoa, coffee, soy, rice, wheat, and maize in 2023 originate from countries particularly vulnerable to environmental threats.

The analysis revealed that for cocoa, wheat, and maize, approximately two-thirds of imports come from nations with poor biodiversity health. The report emphasizes that climate change and biodiversity loss are reducing the resilience of these agricultural systems, intensifying food production challenges. Lead researcher Camilla Hyslop stated that these issues are already impacting businesses, employment, food availability, and prices, and are expected to worsen.

Researchers used Eurostat trade data combined with two environmental risk indices: the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, which assesses countries’ climate vulnerability and support mechanisms, and the UK Natural History Museum’s biodiversity intactness ranking, comparing current wild species abundance to pre-modern levels. The findings show most imports originate from countries rated “low-medium” in climate readiness and biodiversity health.

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Certain foods are especially exposed. For example, 90 percent of EU maize imports come from countries with low to medium climate preparedness, and 67 percent from nations with declining biodiversity. Cocoa imports are even more at risk, with 96.5 percent coming from countries with low-medium climate resilience and 77 percent from those with reduced biodiversity. These vulnerabilities are already affecting the chocolate sector, which relies heavily on West African countries facing overlapping climate and biodiversity challenges. Rising costs of sugar and cocoa shortages are partially attributed to extreme weather events.

The report, commissioned by the European Climate Foundation, recommends that major chocolate companies invest in climate adaptation and biodiversity conservation in cocoa-producing nations. Such initiatives are framed not merely as corporate responsibility but as essential measures to safeguard supply chains. Ensuring farmers receive fair payments could enable them to improve the resilience of their farms.

Commenting on the findings, Paul Behrens of the University of Oxford described the situation as “extremely worrying” for food security. While the EU produces much of its own food, Behrens pointed out that its reliance on imports from vulnerable regions exposes its supply chains to climate and biodiversity risks.

The report also notes that although risks are less pronounced for coffee, rice, and soy, certain hotspots like Uganda are vulnerable. Uganda supplied 10 percent of the EU’s coffee in 2023 and faces climate-related challenges such as unpredictable weather, droughts, and erratic rains, damaging coffee production. Joseph Nkandu, a Ugandan coffee farmer organization leader, called for increased access to international climate finance to support farmers’ resilience.

Food researchers Marco Springmann and others suggest that shifting towards healthier and more sustainable diets is crucial. Since much of the imported soy and grains are used for animal feed, addressing these supply chains could be key to building a more resilient and sustainable food system.