Gold price in Pakistan rises to close the week higher

KARACHI: Gold prices in Pakistan increased on Saturday, climbing in line with a rally in the international market. The price of 24-karat gold per tola reached Rs397,700 after gaining Rs1,900 during the day, according to figures shared by the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA).

Similarly, the price of 10 grammes of gold rose by Rs1,629, closing at Rs340,963. The upward move followed Friday’s session, when the local market had witnessed a decline of Rs1,000, pushing the per-tola rate down to Rs395,800.

The rebound reflects renewed momentum in global bullion markets, where the price per ounce jumped by $19 to settle at $3,759, with an additional premium of $20, according to APGJSA.

Silver also followed gold’s upward trajectory in Pakistan, with the price per tola increasing by Rs105 to close at Rs4,704.

International trend supports local rally

The local market’s climb has come on the back of strong performance in the international market. Spot gold rose 0.8 percent to $3,778.62 per ounce during Friday’s trading, bouncing after the release of US inflation data that matched expectations. Earlier this week, the metal had already touched a record $3,790.82.

US gold futures for December delivery also reflected the positive sentiment, settling 1 percent higher at $3,809.

Traders noted that the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rates is helping sustain the rally. “The monthly PCE data is in line, though personal income and spending were a tenth above expectations. Nothing from this data will prevent the Fed from carrying on with another cautious rate cut at the October meeting,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, rose 2.7 percent year-on-year in August. With inflation broadly aligned with forecasts, investors now see an 88 percent chance of a rate cut in October and a 65 percent probability of another in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Market watchers are also keeping an eye on upcoming remarks from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, which could provide more clues on the central bank’s direction.

A month of record highs

September has been a dramatic month for gold in Pakistan, with prices repeatedly setting fresh records. On September 1, the month opened with a surge of Rs3,300 per tola, taking the price to Rs370,700, then the highest on record. By September 3, gold hit Rs376,700 after another sharp increase.

Date	Gold price per tola (Rs)	Change
September 1	370,700	+3,300
September 2	370,700	Unchanged
September 3	376,700	+6,000
September 4	376,700	Unchanged
September 5	377,900	+1,200
September 6	Holiday	Unchanged
September 7	Sunday	Unchanged
September 8	384,000	+6,100
September 9	388,100	+4,100
September 10	388,100	Unchanged
September 11	384,000	-4,100
September 12	386,500	+2,500
September 13	386,300	-200
September 14	Sunday	Unchanged
September 15	386,300	Unchanged
September 16	391,000	+4,700
September 17	388,600	-2,400
September 18	388,600	Unchanged
September 19	387,500	-1,100
September 20	390,300	+1,700
September 21	Sunday	Unchanged
September 22	393,700	+3,400
September 23	398,800	+5,100
September 24	398,800	Unchanged
September 25	396,800	-2,000
September 26	395,800	-1,000
September 27	397,700	+1,900

The rally extended into mid-September, with gold touching Rs391,000 per tola on September 16, marking yet another all-time high. However, volatility also crept in, as the metal retreated to Rs388,600 a day later.

Later in the month, the market saw further turbulence. On September 23, gold soared by Rs5,100 in a single day, hitting Rs398,800 per tola, the highest price ever recorded in Pakistan. The following day remained unchanged, but losses followed on September 25 and 26, before Saturday’s recovery brought the per-tola rate back near the Rs398,000 level.

For many small investors and jewellers, the constant swings have made it a challenging month. Buyers have been hesitant, with most waiting for a clear downward trend before stepping into the market. On the other hand, investors treating gold as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation have seen their holdings gain value.

Local sentiment

Jewellers say that while high prices have kept retail demand subdued, gold’s position as a “safe haven” remains unchallenged. “People are reluctant to buy jewellery right now, but investors are still active. With the rupee under pressure and inflation high, many see gold as the only stable option,” said a Rawalpindi-based jeweller.

Analysts point out that Pakistan’s gold market often mirrors international price movements but is also sensitive to changes in the local currency. Any fluctuation in the rupee-dollar exchange rate tends to directly affect bullion prices in the country.