Gold price unchanged in Pakistan after record rally

KARACHI: The gold market in Pakistan paused for breath on Wednesday after a dramatic rally earlier this week, with local rates holding steady at record levels while international prices continued to hover near all-time highs.

According to the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA), the price of 24-karat gold stood unchanged at Rs398,800 per tola, the same as Tuesday’s historic high.

The 10-gramme rate for 24-karat gold also remained flat at Rs341,906. For those opting for 22-karat jewellery, the price was quoted at Rs313,425 per 10 grammes.

Date	Gold price (per tola)	Change
September 1	Rs370,700	+Rs3,300
September 2	Rs370,700	No change
September 3	Rs376,700	+Rs6,000
September 4	Rs376,700	No change
September 5	Rs377,900	+Rs1,200
September 6	Holiday	No change
September 7	Sunday	No change
September 8	Rs384,000	+Rs6,100
September 9	Rs388,100	+Rs4,100
September 10	Rs388,100	No change
September 11	Rs384,000	-Rs4,100
September 12	Rs386,500	+Rs2,500
September 13	Rs386,300	-Rs200
September 14	Sunday	No change
September 15	Rs386,300	No change
September 16	Rs391,000	+Rs4,700
September 17	Rs388,600	-Rs2,400
September 18	Rs388,600	No change
September 19	Rs387,500	-Rs1,100
September 20	Rs390,300	+Rs1,700
September 21	Sunday	No change
September 22	Rs393,700	+Rs3,400
September 23	Rs398,800	+Rs5,100
September 24	Rs398,800	No change

A pause after a storm

The quiet session came after weeks of sharp swings in the bullion market. September has been one of the most volatile months in recent memory, with prices repeatedly touching new records in line with global developments. On September 23, gold surged by Rs5,100 in a single day to reach Rs398,800 per tola, marking the highest-ever level in the local market.

This rally has been fuelled largely by movements abroad, where spot gold has surged on the back of shifting monetary expectations in the United States and geopolitical uncertainty in Europe.

On Wednesday, international spot gold was trading near $3,770 an ounce, up $6.6 or 0.17 percent from the previous session. It came a day after the metal hit a record $3,790.82. US gold futures for December delivery, however, edged down 0.4 percent to $3,799.50.

Fed remarks keep investors on edge

The global bullion market has been reacting to the US Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rates. Chair Jerome Powell signalled on Tuesday that the Fed would continue balancing concerns about inflation with signs of labour market weakness. His comments weighed on US stocks, with the S&P 500 posting its biggest one-day loss in three weeks.

Analysts believe that gold’s current strength is being driven by expectations of more rate cuts this year. The CME FedWatch tool shows market participants pricing in two 25-basis-point cuts, one each in October and December, with probabilities of 94 percent and 77 percent, respectively.

“Lower US funding costs, concerns about overvalued equities, and ongoing geopolitical tensions are fuelling this rally,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Gold tends to benefit in low interest rate environments, as the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset falls, making it more attractive to investors seeking safety.

Global tensions add to momentum

Beyond monetary policy, geopolitical risks are keeping the safe-haven metal in demand. NATO issued a warning to Russia on Tuesday, stating that it would use “all necessary military and non-military tools” to defend itself. The statement came as US President Donald Trump shifted his tone, suggesting Ukraine could recover all territory occupied by Russia.

“Geopolitical turbulence and economic uncertainty are both driving safe-haven demand,” said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades. “With the Fed expected to remain dovish, gold should consolidate above $3,750 in the short term, with a possible resistance building around $3,900.”

A look back at September’s journey

For Pakistan’s local market, September has been a rollercoaster. The month began with prices around Rs370,700 per tola, and within just three weeks, the rate had jumped by more than Rs28,000.

On September 1, prices climbed by Rs3,300 in a single day to hit Rs370,700 per tola.

By September 9, the tola rate had soared to Rs388,100 after back-to-back gains.

After brief corrections mid-month, the market again rallied, crossing Rs393,700 on September 22.

On September 23, prices touched Rs398,800 per tola, a milestone never seen before in Pakistan’s bullion trade.

This steep rise has left jewellers reporting mixed responses from customers. While investors continue to see gold as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation, everyday buyers, particularly those shopping for weddings, have been forced to scale back.

What lies ahead

With both global and local factors feeding into the gold market, traders remain cautious about the outlook. Much depends on the upcoming release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due later this week. A softer reading could cement expectations of rate cuts, giving gold another push higher.

For now, Pakistan’s gold market is holding steady at its highest-ever level. But with international prices still flirting with fresh records and uncertainty dominating the global landscape, few are betting on a calm October ahead.