Gold prices fall in local market, but remain close to record highs

KARACHI: Gold prices in Pakistan fell on Friday, reflecting a similar trend in the international market, though the metal continues to trade near record levels after a volatile September.

According to the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA), the price of 24-karat gold declined by Rs1,000 to reach Rs395,800 per tola. The rate of 10-gramme gold also slipped by Rs858 to Rs339,334. On Thursday, gold had already dropped by Rs2,000 per tola to Rs396,800.

While gold prices slipped, silver went in the opposite direction. The price of silver rose by Rs64 to reach Rs4,499 per tola, extending its recent upward move.

Global market trend

The local fall mirrors movements in the global market. Internationally, gold edged lower on Friday after stronger-than-expected US economic data raised fresh doubts over the Federal Reserve’s pace of interest rate cuts. This pushed the dollar higher and weighed on bullion.

Spot gold slipped 0.2 percent to $3,741.21 per ounce as of 0147 GMT, though it remained 1.6 percent higher for the week. US gold futures for December delivery were steady at $3,771.30. The US dollar index hovered near a three-week high, making gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

Later in the day, spot gold held firm at $3,748.39 per ounce as of 1030 GMT. Despite Friday’s slight retreat, the metal has already gained 1.8 percent this week and touched an all-time high of $3,790.82 on Tuesday. US gold futures for December delivery added 0.2 percent to reach $3,778.70.

The pullback came after US economic data showed faster-than-expected growth in the second quarter and a decline in jobless claims. Analysts said the resilience of the American economy had reduced the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed.

Han Tan, chief market analyst at Nemo.money, noted that gold is now hovering in the mid-$3,700 range after traders scaled back their bets for policy easing. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, investors see an 88 percent chance of a rate cut in October and 62 percent in December, both lower than earlier in the week.

Markets are now waiting for the release of the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due later on Friday. A Reuters poll expects the index to show a 0.3 percent month-on-month increase and a 2.7 percent annual rise in August.

Gold in Pakistan throughout September

September has proven to be one of the most dramatic months for gold prices in Pakistan. Rates have swung sharply, often setting fresh records, as global trends and investor sentiment combined to fuel volatility.

Date	Gold price per tola (Rs)	Change (Rs)
September 1	370,700	+3,300
September 2	370,700	Unchanged
September 3	376,700	+6,000
September 4	376,700	Unchanged
September 5	377,900	+1,200
September 6	377,900	Unchanged (Holiday)
September 7	377,900	Sunday
September 8	384,000	+6,100
September 9	388,100	+4,100
September 10	388,100	Unchanged
September 11	384,000	-4,100
September 12	386,500	+2,500
September 13	386,300	-200
September 14	386,300	Sunday
September 15	386,300	Unchanged
September 16	391,000	+4,700
September 17	388,600	-2,400
September 18	388,600	Unchanged
September 19	387,500	-1,100
September 20	390,300	+1,700
September 21	390,300	Sunday
September 22	393,700	+3,400
September 23	398,800	+5,100
September 24	398,800	Unchanged
September 25	396,800	-2,000
September 26	395,800	-1,000

At the start of the month, gold prices stood at Rs370,700 per tola after a surge of Rs3,300 on September 1. The rally did not stop there. By September 3, rates jumped to Rs376,700 per tola, followed by another spike to Rs377,900 on September 5.

The following week saw even steeper gains. On September 8, gold rose by Rs6,100 in a single day to Rs384,000 per tola. Just a day later, the price climbed to Rs388,100, marking another all-time high.

The record streak continued, with the metal touching Rs391,000 on September 16. On September 23, gold made history by reaching Rs398,800 per tola after a massive Rs5,100 jump in one day. The rate stayed unchanged on September 24, holding at its peak.

However, the final week of the month has seen a reversal. Prices dropped by Rs2,000 on September 25 and slid further by Rs1,000 on September 26, bringing the metal down to Rs395,800 per tola.

Despite the late pullback, the overall trend shows that gold has gained nearly Rs25,000 per tola during September alone. For jewellers and investors, it has been one of the busiest and most unpredictable months in years.

Investor outlook

Market watchers say the coming days will depend heavily on the US inflation report and the Fed’s next steps. If inflation cools, expectations of rate cuts could return, supporting gold. On the other hand, further signs of a strong economy may keep bullion under pressure.

In Pakistan, gold prices will continue to move in step with international markets, but local demand also plays a role. Rising rates have already put jewellery out of reach for many households, while investors and traders have been more active, taking advantage of volatility.

For now, gold remains a safe-haven asset trading at historically high levels both globally and locally. Even after this week’s fall, prices are still close to the Rs400,000 mark in Pakistan, underscoring how much the precious metal has climbed in 2025.

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