Oil sales up 8% YoY but monthly dip reflects impact of fuel price hikes

KARACHI: Pakistan’s Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) recorded total sales of 1.22 million tons in July 2025, reflecting a 2 percent year-on-year (YoY) increase but a 22 percent decline on a month-on-month (MoM) basis. Excluding Furnace Oil (FO), sales stood at 1.21 million tons, marking an 8 percent YoY rise but a 16 percent MoM drop, according to a research report issued by Topline Securities on Monday.

The YoY increase was primarily driven by gradual economic recovery and a reduction in smuggling from Iran. The sharp MoM decline, on the other hand, was attributed to higher petrol and diesel prices, along with heavy rains and flooding in the northern region during July. In addition, there was some pre-buying activity in June 2025 in anticipation of a possible price hike following the imposition of the carbon or climate support levy.

Petrol prices rose by Rs13.72 per litre, while diesel prices increased by Rs21.76 per litre. These hikes were driven by rising international crude oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, the report added.

Product-wise performance

Motor Spirit (MS) sales rose by 4 percent YoY but fell 16 percent MoM to 613,000 tons in July. Similarly, High-Speed Diesel (HSD) sales increased 9 percent YoY but declined 18 percent MoM to 509,000 tons.

The MoM drop in HSD sales was due to a seasonal fall in demand following the end of the harvesting season, further impacted by the recent rise in fuel prices.

Furnace Oil (FO) sales dropped sharply by 80 percent YoY and 88 percent MoM to just 15,000 tons in July, marking an all-time low. This decline was attributed to the imposition of the Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) on FO in the federal budget. Additionally, pre-buying in June contributed to lower July numbers, as previously mentioned.

Company-wise breakdown

Among listed entities, Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) reported sales of 99,000 tons in July, down 3 percent YoY (Ex-FO sales up 2 percent) and 25 percent MoM. APL held a market share of 7.81 percent in MS and 8.09 percent in HSD during the month, down 4 basis points (bps) and 22 bps respectively compared to June 2025.

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) reported a 7 percent YoY decline in total sales (Ex-FO down 1 percent) and a 23 percent MoM drop to 508,000 tons in July. PSO’s market share in HSD and MS stood at 40.8 percent and 38.6 percent, down 476 bps and 316 bps MoM, respectively. The company’s overall market share dropped from 42.2 percent in June to 41.6 percent in July, mainly due to a decline in MS share.

Wafi Energy Pakistan Limited (WAFI) posted sales of 106,000 tons in July, up 22 percent YoY but down 17 percent MoM. Meanwhile, Hascol Petroleum Limited (HASCOL) recorded sales of 45,000 tons, showing a 16 percent YoY rise and a 3 percent MoM increase.

Looking ahead, oil sales in FY26 are expected to grow in the range of 7 to 10 percent, supported by economic recovery and stabilising fuel demand.

Read next: How Instagram reels are quietly hurting relationships