Pakistan’s GDP crosses $400b mark, analysts predict 5.47pc growth in 4QFY25

WEB DESK: According to the latest data, released by the Ministry of Finance and Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), Pakistan’s provisional GDP growth is 2.68 per cent for Fiscal Year 2025 (FY25), up from 2.51 per cent in FY24. Moreover, analyst reports show that the National Accounts Committee’s (NAC) latest GDP data also shows a 5.47 per cent YoY growth in the fourth quarter of FY25.

In nominal terms, the size of GDP reached $411 billion while per capita income reached $1,824. The expected real GDP growth is lower than the initially estimated number of 3.6 per cent, report by research firm Arif Habib Limited (AHL) said.

The GDP estimates for the first and second quarter of FY25 show a growth of 1.37 per cent (July to September 2025) and 1.53 per cent (October to December). Sector-wise distribution shows that the industrial sector was the primary driver of growth in FY25, recording a YoY increase of 4.77 per cent. Services sector came second with 2.91 per cent YoY growth. The agriculture sector saw a 0.56 per cent YoY growth in FY25.

AHL report also predicts that with the full-year provisional GDP growth at 2.68 per cent and Q1–Q3 growth figures at 1.37 per cent, 1.53 per cent, and 2.40 per cent respectively, the implied growth for Q4-FY25 is estimated at a robust 5.47 per cent, suggesting a strong economic pickup in the final quarter.

Topline Securities, however, estimates that the industrial sector’s growth will be revised down at the end of the year, down from the projected 4.8 per cent growth because the industry has contracted by 1 per cent in the past 9 months of the current fiscal year.

Apart from this, most economic experts agree on the improvement in macroeconomic indicators, controlled inflation, and the reduced policy rate providing the much needed impetus to the economy. The banking sector, especially, has shown remarkable improvement, not only in terms of lending to the government and the corporate sector, but also in car and property loans offered to the private sector.

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