Short-term inflation eases slightly as chicken, onions become cheaper

ISLAMABAD: The weekly Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), a key barometer of short-term inflation, recorded a minor decline of 0.16 percent for the week ending September 25, 2025. While the overall reading suggested a modest relief, the detailed figures revealed a mixed picture for consumers, with sharp drops in some essentials but fresh spikes in others.

The SPI, compiled by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), tracks the movement of 51 essential items from 50 markets across 17 major cities. It offers a snapshot of how ordinary households are being affected by day-to-day changes in prices.

Chicken and bananas bring some relief

One of the biggest reliefs during the week came from chicken, which saw a steep fall of 12.46 percent compared to the previous week. This drop follows months of volatility in poultry rates, and for many households, it meant some breathing space in their food budgets.

Bananas also became cheaper, falling by 4.22 percent, while potatoes and onions saw declines of 2.44 percent and 1.61 percent respectively. Garlic, a kitchen staple that had been persistently costly, dropped by nearly 0.61 percent. Prices of pulses, including moong, gram, mash and masoor, all inched down modestly, offering some balance in an otherwise uneven price landscape.

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), a common source of household fuel in both urban and rural homes, also recorded a dip of 0.65 percent, providing slight relief to families dependent on cylinders for cooking.

Tomatoes surge, wheat flour edges up

But the week was not without its pressures. Tomatoes, which had earlier cooled off, surged by 9.04 percent, becoming the single largest contributor to inflationary pressure. Eggs also rose by 0.88 percent, while the price of the 20kg wheat flour bag climbed 0.76 percent.

Other increases were seen in gur (0.64 percent), powdered milk (0.58 percent), washing soap (0.47 percent), and mutton (0.40 percent). Cooking oil and vegetable ghee, both central to Pakistani kitchens, also nudged higher. Even items like printed lawn fabric saw an uptick of 0.17 percent, reflecting how inflationary waves are not confined to food alone but seep into household spending more broadly.

Inflationary trend compared with last year

On a year-on-year basis, the SPI registered an overall increase of 3.95 percent. This suggests that while weekly fluctuations may give some relief, the longer-term trend remains worrying for household budgets.

The most striking jump over the past year came in footwear, with ladies’ sandals soaring by 55.62 percent compared to September 2024. Tomatoes too showed a staggering annual rise of 53.61 percent. Sugar remained a thorn in the side of consumers with a 31.90 percent increase, while gas charges for households spiked by almost 30 percent.

Basic food staples such as wheat flour were 17.36 percent costlier compared to last year, while pulses like moong were up 16.67 percent. Cooking oil and ghee also posted double-digit annual increases. Beef and firewood became 12 percent and 11.7 percent more expensive, respectively, reflecting higher costs for both nutrition and energy.

On the flip side, some items offered significant relief compared to last year. Onion prices collapsed by more than 42 percent, garlic dropped nearly 28 percent, and potatoes were down 18 percent. Electricity charges, linked to the first quarterly tariff, showed a decline of 26 percent. Poultry prices were also considerably cheaper on a yearly basis, with chicken down by 22 percent.

Stable for some, harsh for others

The report also highlighted how inflation affects different income groups unevenly. For the lowest spending households, the week-on-week change was almost negligible at 0.02 percent, while the wealthiest bracket saw a steeper decline of 0.21 percent. On an annual basis, the lowest quintile experienced a 3.75 percent rise in prices, while the upper-middle groups felt increases of 4.7 percent, underscoring how the inflationary squeeze often hits the middle class hardest.

Looking at the bigger picture

The PBS data shows how inflationary pressures continue to shift week by week. Over the past 10 weeks, the SPI has swung between small gains and declines, reflecting both supply-side shocks and seasonal factors. For example, sharp fluctuations in perishable items such as tomatoes, onions and chicken often drive weekly volatility.

Yet the broader concern remains that despite some relief in select weeks, the cumulative effect over months keeps household costs rising. For families already stretched thin, the news that sugar, wheat flour, cooking oil and fuel remain persistently high means budgeting remains a challenge.

What lies ahead?

Analysts believe the mixed signals in the SPI point to continuing uncertainty in food supply chains and energy costs. While bumper harvests or seasonal availability can bring short-term drops, structural issues like high fuel charges, currency weakness and rising import costs keep the pressure alive.

For now, the latest figures may offer some relief, particularly for families seeing chicken and onions becoming cheaper. But with tomatoes, sugar and wheat flour climbing again, the tug-of-war between falling and rising prices continues to define the shopping experience of ordinary citizens.

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