Do China’s recent military purges spell trouble for Xi Jinping?

BEIJING: In recent months, the disappearances of several high-ranking Chinese officials have sparked intense speculation over whether Mr Xi is embarking on a purge, particularly of those linked to the military.

The latest person who appears to have fallen from grace is defence minister Li Shangfu, who has not been seen in public for some weeks now.

While his absence was not seen as unusual at first, scrutiny intensified when a top US diplomat pointed it out. A Reuters report later said General Li, who used to oversee arms procurement for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), was being investigated over military equipment purchases.

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His “disappearance” comes weeks after two top officials in the Rocket Forces – the military arm that controls nuclear missiles – and a military court judge were removed.

Fresh rumours are now circulating that some cadres in the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) central military commission that controls the armed forces are also being investigated.

Little to no official explanation has been given for these removals, apart from “health reasons”. In this void, speculation has blossomed.

The main theory is that authorities are cracking down on corruption in the PLA.

Corruption has long been a problem in the military particularly since China began liberalising its economy in the 1970s, noted James Char, a research fellow at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University who studies the relationship between the CCP and the military.

Every year China spends more than a trillion yuan on the military with some going towards procurement transactions, which for national security reasons cannot be fully revealed. This lack of transparency is further compounded by China’s one-party centralised system.

While Mr Xi has had some wins in tempering corruption within the armed forces and restoring its reputation to some extent, “rooting out corruption is a formidable if not impossible undertaking” as it would require “systemic redesigns which I’m afraid the authoritarian state remains averse to”, Dr Char added.

“Until the CCP government is willing to put in place a proper legal system no longer sanctioned by itself, such purges will keep occurring.”

There is also speculation that Mr Xi is acting under internal party pressure to clean out the stables, as China struggles with a slowing post-Covid economy and soaring youth unemployment. Under China’s political system, Mr Xi is not only China’s president but also the top leader of the military.

Ultimately, these officials’ vanishing acts have fueled a “resulting unease”.