From fields to forks — how climate change impacts food supplies in Pakistan?

By Tahir Ali

CHAKDARA: Ikram-ul-Haq, age 37, owns around 14-kanal of land in Khadagzai village, within the Adenzai tehsil of Lower Dir. Over the last 15 years, he has been dedicatedly engaged in the field of agriculture, cultivating a variety of vegetables with a specific emphasis on tomatoes.

“I have embraced this profession, and my bond with the land has shaped my identity. The fragrance of my soil and vegetables captivates me,” Haq shared with HUM News English.

However, today, Haq is worried about the future of his livelihood. The past few years have proven exceedingly challenging to sustain himself solely through vegetable cultivation. The rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and hail storms have affected crop yields.

“In 2015 and the years that followed, the yield from my 12-kanal tomato farm averaged around 150 plastic bags (each containing 9KG), which I harvested every other day; however, as the year progressed the yield began to decline. By 2020, it had dropped to approximately 80 bags during the peak season,” Haq said.

Ikram-ul-Haq has been cultivating tomatoes for the past 15 years.

He experimented with various seeds and plant hormones in an attempt to enhance yield. However, his efforts did not yield the desired results. Left with limited options, he resolved to cultivate tomatoes on a small plot of land, solely to meet the household’s daily tomato consumption.

In the village of Khadagzai, farmers primarily engage in large-scale cultivation of tomatoes, followed by okra (lady’s fingers). They also practice vertical cultivation of bottle gourd (lauki) and bitter gourd (karela) on the shaded boundaries of their agricultural lands. The tomato and other vegetable season in this particular area spans between July and the first weeks of September.

The farmers transport their harvest to Sabzi Mandi (vegetable and fruit market) situated across the River Swat in Batkhela, Malakand district, or to Timergara, the administrative headquarters of Lower Dir.

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In addition to cultivators, the notable decline in vegetable yields has put numerous jobs at risk, including those of agents, transporters, pesticide and seed suppliers, drivers, helpers, and more.

Numerous individuals, including Shehriyar Khan from Malakand, invest in tomato orchards across different regions of the country when the plants are not yet bearing fruits. Subsequently, they distribute the tomatoes to different markets nationwide once they mature and tomatoes become available. “However, the emergence of climate change has infused this business with an unprecedented level of risk; contractors are now facing substantial losses amounting to millions,” Khan told HUM News English.

A glimpse of Sabzi Mandi Batkhela, Malakand

Low vegetable yields bring a myriad of miseries for the farmers. Often, agriculture supply stores provide seeds and fertilizers to farmers, with repayment expected upon crop maturity and market sales. However, climate change has led to yield reduction and, in several cases, total crop loss due to heatwaves, erratic rainfall, and thunderstorms. “As a result, these farmers struggle to meet loan obligations, which also test our lending capacity,” stated Siraj Khan, an agribusiness operator in Batkhela.

He said that farmers without their lands are also facing challenges in meeting lease commitments to landlords due to disappointing crop yields.

Abrupt temperature fluctuations, whether a sudden increase or decrease, have a profound negative impact on plants and their yields. These fluctuations not only provide extended lifecycles to damaging fungi and crop-attacking insects, but they also disrupt the plant’s physiological and lifecycle processes. “Despite the apparent health and abundant foliage of my tomato plants, their yields have been drastically reduced,” shared farmer Sayed Usama of Lower Dir with HUM News English. He further said that a similar situation was evident in the cases of his okra and bottle gourd crops.

Sajid Khan, an experienced agriculture officer from Malakand, notes that tomato crops were being affected by a range of diseases, most notably bacterial spot, which impacts both the plants and their fruits. Additionally, there are cases of early blight and late blight contributing to these challenges. “These ailments, categorized as fungal diseases, are intricately connected to shifts in climate patterns, further exacerbating the challenges encountered in tomato cultivation,” the official told HUM News English.

He said that temperatures, particularly in the male flowers of tomato, bottle gourd, and okra, the pollen can wither and die on its own. Although the plant may seem healthy, this can result in reduced fruit production.

Vegetable Nursery, NARC, Islamabad.

According to Dr Mazhar Hussain, a scientific officer with the Vegetables Crop Research Programme at NARC, there appears to be a significant association between climate change, low vegetable yields, and an increased incidence of diseases. “We need a minimum of three seasons to thoroughly investigate the impact of climate change on vegetables. These fluctuations began in 2022, and it will take at least another year to achieve a substantial comprehension of the situation,” he told HUM News English.

For instance, in 2022, the month of March experienced higher temperatures than usual, whereas this year, March was noticeably cooler. On the first day of June in Islamabad, as well as in the Peshawar valley (including Peshawar, Charsadda, Mardan, Swabi and Nowshera), Malakand, and Dir Lower, midday temperatures ranged between 18°C and 21°C. However, by June 17, the temperature had surged to a scorching 39°C. This dramatic contrast highlights the significant temperature fluctuations observed in the region.

Weather conditions in the first and third weeks of June 2023

According to Hussain, the green tunnel may have some ability to influence temperature control, while the use of urea fertilizer can potentially reduce soil temperatures by up to 5 degrees. However, it’s uncertain whether the upcoming week will bring cooler or hotter temperatures than the normal. “The farmers find themselves in a complex situation,” he remarked.

In such circumstances, farmers are advised not to use hormones or conduct some other experiments while they should allow the weather to determine the course of action. However, they can use fertilizers containing Nitrogen, Phosphorous, and Potassium (NPK).

As per the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Climate Change Action Plan 2022, the provincial government is establishing a risk management system guarding against crop failure due to extreme climate events. Plans include setting up surveillance in vulnerable areas and categorizing their susceptibility to climate events. Involving farmers in identifying local risks, devising safeguards, and promoting research-based drought and head-resistant crops is emphasized.