Markets on tenterhooks ahead of US jobs data

LONDON: World shares held near three-week lows on Friday, while the dollar regained some ground and crude oil steadied as investors waited for US jobs data that could decide the size and speed of coming interest rate cuts in the world’s largest economy.

Oil prices face their worst week in more than a year, hovering just above a critical chart level, with their near-term fate depending on the U.S. payrolls report due later.

European shares opened lower and slipped for a fifth straight session, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index STOXX last down 0.4%.

Germany’s DAX index .GDAXI remained down 0.5% after data showed the country’s industrial production fell by 2.4% in July, compared with analysts’ prediction of a 0.3% drop.

“Germany has become the sick child of Europe again recently, and there is a lot of worry on the health of the economy,” said James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities.

This would be overshadowed by the U.S. job numbers, he added.

There is a lot riding on the U.S. non-farm payrolls report after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers do not welcome any further weakening in the labour market, laying the ground for imminent rate cuts.

Analysts are looking for the number of new jobs, due at 8:30 a.m. ET (1230 GMT), to rise by 160,000 and for the unemployment rate to dip to 4.2%.

TD Securities’ Rossiter said the unemployment rate was key. A rise to 4.3% or 4.4% would probably push the Fed to call a 50 basis point rate cut, he said.

Influential Fed governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams are due to speak just after the data, which could give markets more clues on the scale of a rate cut on Sept. 18.

“They will both have had a chance to comb through this latest data and we’ll see if there is push back on a 50 basis point cut,” said Rossiter.

Also read: US jobless claims hold steady at 20-month high, current account gap widens

Ahead of the announcement, U.S. equity markets meandered lower. Nasdaq futures NQc1 fell 1.22%, while S&P futures ESc1 slipped 0.7%.

“A weak number would reignite hard-landing fears,

while a strong number may see the market chalk up July’s weakness to weather or other one-off effects and increase soft-landing positioning,” Citi C.N analysts said in a note.

MSCI’s broadest index of world shares .MIWD00000PUS was flat, hovering around a 2.5% drop for the week.

The Shanghai Composite index .SSEC closed down 0.81% at 2,765.81 points, while the blue-chip CSI300 index .CSI300 ended 0.81% lower at 3,231.35 points. Both recorded their lowest closing levels since Feb. 5.

Hong Kong stock markets were shut ahead of Super Typhoon Yagi’s expected landfall along the coast of Hainan province.

The Nikkei .N225 closed 0.72% lower at 36,391.47 points, after a weekly loss of more than 5% in its worst week since July 26, weighing on the outlook for Japanese exports.

The yen JPY=EBS rose 0.4% to 142.87 per dollar, bringing the weekly gain to roughly around 3%, although a strong payrolls report could see that reverse.

Kristina Clifton, an economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, noted that market caution in the lead up to the U.S. data has driven safe haven flows into the yen.

Globally, jittery investors poured $61 billion into cash-like money market funds in the week to Wednesday, Bank of America said on Friday.

Treasury yields slipped on Friday, extending their declines this week. Two-year Treasury yields US2YT=RR are down around 20 basis points (bps) so far this week to around 3.71%, trading around their lowest since early 2023.

Ten-year yields US10YT=RR have fallen just over 20 bps this week to 3.70%, with the spread over two years on the verge of turning positive.

Oil is facing the worst week since October 2023 as demand worries weigh against a big withdrawal from U.S. inventories and a delay to output increases by OPEC+ producers. O/R

Brent crude futures LCOc1 recovered some ground on Friday to be up around 4 cents at $72.75 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate CLc1 crude futures gave up earlier gains, trading flat at 69.15, but were down more than 8% and 9% respectively so far in the week.

Gold XAU= ticked up 0.1% at just over $2,519 an ounce.