Mearsheimer: Russia gains strategic edge as Iran war puts India’s economy at risk

WEB DESK: Prominent American political scientist John Mearsheimer has declared Russia the “clearest winner” from the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, citing Washington’s decision to waive sanctions on Russian oil and gas amid surging global energy prices.

Speaking on RT’s New Order programme, the University of Chicago professor, co-author of the influential book The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy, said the conflict, which began with the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on 28 February, has produced unexpected geopolitical winners and losers.

Mearsheimer singled out Russia and China, both BRICS members, as the biggest beneficiaries, while warning that several other nations in the grouping, especially India, stand to suffer significant damage.

“The clearest winner is Russia,” he stated bluntly, pointing to US President Donald Trump’s move to lift sanctions on Russian energy exports as oil and gas prices climbed sharply because of the war.

He added that China had also strengthened its position, but stressed that “a lot of the BRICS countries are going to be badly hurt. India is one of them. Indonesia may be another.”

India faces ‘disastrous’ consequences

Mearsheimer described the situation for India as unequivocally negative. “This is all bad news for India. There’s no question that all Indians understand that this war is disastrous for India,” he said.

He highlighted rising costs for imported gas, fertilisers and food production as key concerns that could fuel inflation and threaten agricultural output in the world’s most populous nation.

The scholar noted that neither India nor Gulf states had anticipated a long war, which explained New Delhi’s initial decision not to protest strongly against the US-Israeli strikes.

India stopped short of condemning the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei and instead offered condolences days later. According to Mearsheimer, this cautious stance reflects Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s awareness of the risks of aligning too closely with Washington.

“Modi is aware of the danger of getting too close to the United States,” he remarked. “The United States is basically a rogue elephant, and if you get too close to a rogue elephant, it may trample you.”

Mearsheimer suggested that the economic pain inflicted on India and possibly Indonesia could force these countries to rethink their relationships with the United States.

His comments come as the US-Israeli operation, initially expected to deliver a quick and decisive victory, has evolved into a protracted conflict, with Iran demonstrating greater resilience than anticipated.