Oil prices stay flat before key Russia-Ukraine and OPEC+ updates

Global oil markets hit the ‘wait and see’ button on Friday, with prices clinging to recent levels as traders looked ahead to two major moments that could decide the next direction for crude.

Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, backed by Washington, and an OPEC+ meeting on Sunday are both expected to influence future supply. That supply picture has kept markets under pressure for months.

Brent crude opened the day at $63.34 a barrel, the same price where it closed on Thursday. Trading was thin, with many dealing floors still half-lit after the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. The more-traded February Brent contract slipped only slightly, sitting at $62.85. WTI, the benchmark for US oil, stood at $59.00, up 35 cents or 0.60%. US markets remained closed on Thursday for the holiday, adding to the quieter tone.

A losing streak that won’t quit

Both Brent and WTI are heading towards their fourth monthly drop in a row. It is the longest run of losses since 2023. The slump has mainly come from a simple, stubborn fact: the world is pumping more oil than before, and demand has not kept the same pace.

That balance could soon shift further if Russian oil returns to broader global trade. On Thursday, President Vladimir Putin said draft peace proposals being discussed by Ukraine and the US could form the basis of future agreements. Yet he left little room for doubt about Russia’s stance if a deal goes south.

He said Russia is prepared to keep fighting if talks fail. Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is reportedly planning to visit Moscow early next week, signalling a fresh diplomatic push.

From Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy confirmed that Ukrainian and US teams will meet again this week to shape a formula discussed in Geneva. Markets have seen ‘false starts’ before, and caution is now the default mood.

On the supply front, OPEC+ is widely expected to hold output levels unchanged on Sunday. The group is also likely to sign off on a way to measure how much oil each country can realistically produce at full capacity. The measured approach has kept prices from sharp swings.

Crude benchmarks are expected to finish the week slightly higher, gaining more than 1% amid hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut that could boost growth and fuel demand. For now, optimism and caution share the same trading screen.