Oil rises modestly as geopolitics overshadow supply control

Global oil prices posted small gains on Monday, driven less by raw demand and more by uncertainty swirling around major oil-producing regions. Trading rooms across Asia and Europe opened with cautious optimism after the OPEC+ alliance chose to extend its production pause through the first quarter of 2026.

The group, which brings together OPEC members and partner countries, first slowed its plan to raise output in early November. On Sunday, after talks in Riyadh, the alliance confirmed supply increases would remain on hold until March 2026. Officials signalled flexibility, noting that output limits could shift quickly if market trends change.

Benchmark Brent crude, the global reference, hovered at $62.99 per barrel at 00:52 GMT, up 0.98 percent from its previous close. In the US, West Texas Intermediate crude traded at $59.12 a barrel, gaining 57 cents, or 0.99 percent. The uptick was muted but reflected a market trying to balance managed supply against new geopolitical risk.

Market conversation flared around Venezuela after reports emerged that US President Donald Trump was considering restricting Venezuelan airspace, a claim not yet confirmed by officials. Venezuela plays a critical role in South American crude flows and depends on air and sea logistics to support its wider energy network. Trump acknowledged on Sunday that he spoke with President Nicolás Maduro by phone but declined to share specifics. Questioned about the airspace remarks, he said, “Don’t read anything into it,” offering markets little guidance.

In Eastern Europe, tensions added more strain. Ukraine’s military claimed it hit a Russian refinery and an aviation plant in the Rostov region over the weekend. Social media footage reportedly showed heavy smoke rising from industrial sites, though the claims have not been independently verified. Ukrainian naval drones were also said to have struck two sanctioned oil tankers in the Black Sea, reportedly heading to a Russian port to load crude for foreign markets.

Diplomatic talks between Kyiv and Washington were held in Florida on Sunday. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the meeting as “productive,” but noted there is still significant ground to cover to bring an end to the conflict, now in its third year.

Analysts believe the latest price movement reflects jitters around logistics risks, spare supply concerns and potential disruptions. For now, oil remains in a holding pattern, inching upward, weighed down by global stress points that refuse to fade.