Pakistan’s CPI for May 2025 expected at 3.0pc YoY: analysts

KARACHI: Based on two weeks of Sensitive Price Index (SPI) data for May 2025, the year-on-year (YoY) Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to come in at 3.01 per cent, while month-on-month (MoM) CPI is projected at -0.61 per cent, according to research by Arif Habib Limited.

Key drivers of the expected decline include a 1.9 per cent MoM drop in the food index, a 0.8 per cent fall in transportation costs, and a 0.7 per cent decline in housing.

A sensitivity analysis suggests that with MoM variations ranging from -1.5 per cent to +1.5 per cent, the YoY CPI for May 2025 could fall between 2.1 per cent and 5.2 per cent, the report added.

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According to data from the State Bank of Pakistan, national CPI inflation (YoY) slowed to 0.3 per cent in April from 0.7 per cent in March. It stood at 17.3 per cent in April 2024.

On a MoM basis, national CPI recorded a deflation of 0.8 per cent in April 2025, compared with inflation of 0.9 per cent in the previous month. In April 2024, CPI had shown a deflation of 0.4 per cent.

Urban CPI inflation (YoY) declined to 0.5 per cent in April 2025 from 1.2 per cent in March. It had been 19.4 per cent in April 2024. On a MoM basis, urban CPI fell by 0.7 per cent in April, compared with a rise of 0.8 per cent in the previous month. It had declined by 0.1 per cent in April 2024.

Urban core inflation (non-food, non-energy) dropped to 7.4 per cent YoY in April 2025 from 8.2 per cent in March. It stood at 13.1 per cent a year earlier. On a MoM basis, it rose to 1.3 per cent in April from 0.5 per cent in March, compared with 2.1 per cent in April 2024.