Shrapnel from intercepted Houthi missile injures one in Saudi Arabia’s Asir region

CAIRO/RIYADH: Shrapnel from a ballistic missile intercepted over Saudi Arabia’s Asir region injured one person, the Saudi Civil Defence said on Saturday, as Riyadh considers a new military offensive against Iran-backed Houthi forces in neighbouring Yemen.

The Saudi state news agency reported that the incident occurred in Ahad Rafidah governorate. The missile was launched on Friday by Yemen’s Houthi movement, according to the report.

The incident comes amid preparations for a possible Saudi-led operation aimed at reversing recent territorial gains by the Houthis and securing the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, according to regional and Western officials cited by Reuters.

Six people familiar with the preparations said the offensive could begin in the coming weeks. Yemeni forces overseen by Riyadh would lead ground operations, supported by Saudi air strikes, the officials said.

Saudi Arabia is weighing two possible approaches, according to Gulf and Yemeni officials. One option involves a limited offensive targeting areas around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key maritime passage connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. The other envisages a broader campaign involving coordinated attacks on several fronts, including the governorates of Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf.

A principal objective of the planned operation is to reverse the Houthis’ recent advances along Yemen’s coast and their reported seizure of positions around the strait, the officials said.

The United States is already providing intelligence support for Saudi operations in Yemen, while some regional and European countries have supplied mainly defensive military assistance, according to the people familiar with the preparations. However, Saudi allies are not expected to participate directly in combat operations, they added.

The proposed offensive would mark a further escalation in Yemen’s conflict, in which Saudi Arabia intervened in 2015 at the head of an Arab coalition supporting the internationally recognised government after the Houthis seized the capital, Sanaa.

A truce reached in 2022 largely contained hostilities for several years. However, the situation deteriorated again this year after the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks targeting Saudi shipping and oil infrastructure amid the wider conflict involving Iran.

The planned operation has not previously been reported, Reuters said, citing Gulf and Yemeni officials and Western diplomats familiar with the preparations. Saudi authorities have not publicly confirmed the reported offensive plans.

More than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilised in the offensive, depending on the scale, the officials all said.

Spokespeople for the Saudi and Yemeni governments, the Houthi group and the US military didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment about the Saudi plans.

Bab el-Mandeb is the southern exit passage of the Red Sea, a key shipping route between the Mediterranean and Asia that’s assumed even more importance this year as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed by the Iran conflict.

Riyadh has concluded it cannot enter new Yemeni peace negotiations with the Houthis while the militants remain in control of Bab el-Mandeb, giving them significant global leverage, the Western diplomats and Gulf official said.

The six people with knowledge of the Saudi preparations couldn’t give a precise timing for the launch of the offensive, with their estimates ranging from within a week to until after the US midterm elections in early November.

Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said he expected an offensive to be narrowly focused and certainly more modest in scope than the Saudi-led operation in 2015 that sought to rout the militants.

“As much they want to vanquish the Houthis completely, they also need to get back to status quo ante before Houthis controlled territory along Bab el-Mandeb,” he added. “Ideally, it would be a fairly limited operation to retake coastal areas and get back to normal maritime traffic.”

The Houthis have become Iran’s most formidable ally in the Middle East since Israel’s degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon over the past three years.

A Saudi-directed offensive against the group would mark a new flashpoint in a region engulfed by conflict since the Hamas-led attacks on Israel of October 7, 2023 and the subsequent US-Israeli war on Iran.

Trump, Turkey and Pakistan

Washington, Saudi Arabia’s most powerful ally, is providing military advisers and intelligence including targeting information to support Saudi air operations in Yemen, according to one of the Western diplomats.

However, the extent of support may be limited. Reuters has previously reported that US President Donald Trump rebuffed requests by the de facto Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman for direct military support such as air strikes.

Turkey and Pakistan, with whom Saudi Arabia signed a joint defence agreement last month, have provided military equipment that the kingdom is using in Yemen, Pakistani and regional officials said.

Last month, Pakistan sent four cargo planes with equipment including air defence systems, light artillery, drones and anti-drone systems to Aden, the seat of Yemen’s Saudi-backed government, a Pakistani government official said.

Pakistani military advisers are also on the ground with Saudi counterparts to support Yemeni forces, according to a second Pakistani official, the Gulf official and a Western diplomat. Turkish drones, bought by Saudi Arabia before the current war, have also been deployed over Yemen, they added.

One of the kingdom’s key concerns in launching a new offensive in Yemen is how to protect its oil facilities and other infrastructure from Houthi drone and missile attacks, according to regional officials who said Riyadh has asked several allies for help with defensive systems.

Pakistan has deployed between 30,000 and 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia to help defend the kingdom’s land borders and help with drone and missile interceptions, according to the second Pakistani official, who said the troops arrived in waves beginning last year but also after the recent escalation. Islamabad hasn’t made any decision to send troops into Yemen in a fighting capacity, the official said.

The Pakistani and Turkish defence ministries didn’t respond to requests for comment on their military support for Riyadh.

France, meanwhile, has announced it will send defensive systems and troops to Saudi Arabia to help protect the Red Sea port ‌city of Yanbu.

FRACTURED YEMENI FORCES

Any ground operation inside Yemen will rely on the disparate coalition of Yemeni fighting factions that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates armed and trained at earlier stages of the civil war when the conflict ground to a bloody stalemate.

“Many anti-Houthi forces are still not organised or prepared for the kind of sustained offensive required to push back a disciplined Houthi military force. And they are being tested right now, as the Houthis apply pressure across several fronts at once,” said Yemen analyst Mohammed Albasha.

Yemeni forces were further fractured last winter when southern fighters backed by the UAE tried to take territory in the east and announce secession plans, leading to their defeat by Saudi-backed fighters after a series of clashes.

Ali Shihabi, a Saudi political analyst close to government thinking, cautioned the outcome of any offensive by the Saudis against the Houthis would depend on how ground forces perform.

“The priority so far has been to defend the positions on the ground and stabilise the front, but certainly they will be going on the offensive,” he said. “Success greatly depends on the quality of the performance of the local forces.”