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Study highlights Shisper glacier’s flood risks, urges early warning systems
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- Tanveer Abbas Web Desk
- Jan 16, 2025

GILGIT: New research using satellite imagery has tracked the evolution of a glacier lake formed by a surge of the Shisper Glacier, located in the Karakoram Mountain range, spanning the borders of Pakistan, China, and India.
The glacier began surging in early 2018, blocking a river in Hassanabad area of Hunza and forming an ice-dammed lake. Researchers from the University of Portsmouth and the International Centre of Integrated Mountain Development analysed this phenomenon using satellite images captured by the European Space Agency. They identified that the lake underwent six phases of filling and drainage, continuing even after the glacier stopped surging in 2020.
Four of the phases led to the formation of a large lake that grew to its maximum size by May each year, threatening the safety of the communities below. It took on average at least 155 days for the lake to fill.
The largest lake phase reached a volume of 33.7 million cubic metres in May 2022 – more than 13,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools. Each large lake phase drained rapidly between May and July as glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), typically over one to two days.
Also read: NDMA issues warning of glacier bursts in KP and G-B
The GLOF in May 2022 caused the Hassanabad Bridge, a major crossing point on the Karakoram Highway between Pakistan and China, to collapse and also caused extensive damage to nearby homes, buildings, and hydropower infrastructure.
“Shisper Glacier provides additional evidence of the potential hazards posed by the clustering of ice-dammed lake formation and associated GLOFs during glacier surges in the Karakoram, and in particular demonstrates that GLOF hazards can persist for several years after surge termination,” reads the research paper.
The research said that no lake formed in 2022–23 or by the end of our analysis in September 2024, indicating that lake evolution associated with the 2018–20 surge has ended.
Pakistan is home to the largest number of glaciers outside the polar regions. The study highlights the importance of closely monitoring glacier surges and any lakes that subsequently form, in an effort to reduce potential future damage.
Lead author, Dr Harold Lovell, Senior Lecturer and glaciologist from the University of Portsmouth, said, “It’s hard to predict when glaciers will surge and whether they will dam dangerous lakes, but we know that in some settings this is more likely. Satellite data allows us to identify and track surges, potentially helping to pinpoint locations where lakes may be dammed in the future. This information is crucial for helping to warn communities about periods of increased flood risk.”
Co-lead author, Dr. Sher Muhammad from the International Center of Integrated Mountain Development, said, “Even after the Shisper Glacier stopped surging and advancing, the lake continued to form and drain for two more years, causing damaging floods with estimated losses of over $4 million to private property.
“However, our data suggests that the phases of lake formation resulting from the Shisper Glacier’s latest surge have ended, which may offer a period of respite, particularly to residents of Hassanabad village who live in its path.”
Implementing community-based early warning systems, installing gabion walls for flood protection, and building community and infrastructure resilience could reduce the risks of glacier-related hazards in the region.