‘Super’ El Niño could cause 451,000 excess deaths, researchers say

Extreme heat caused by this year’s “super-El Niño” could result in as many as 451,000 excess deaths across the globe from June this year to February 2027, researchers with the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab said on Wednesday.

The number of extremely hot days is likely to rise by 44 per cent compared to normal years, according to the Climate Impact Lab report.

The report said Nigeria is likely to record the highest number of excess heat-related fatalities, estimated at 31,400, between September 2026 and February 2027, followed by Indonesia and Sudan with 19,300 and 17,600 deaths, respectively.

The reported data also shared that heat in Africa’s Sahel region, including Niger and Chad as well as Nigeria and Sudan, may cause an additional 66,800 deaths over the six-month period.

The researchers also said that Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia may also experience an additional 19,400 deaths combined.

The number of excess deaths could even climb higher if El Niño extends further into 2027, with key areas of the northern hemisphere, including India and Pakistan, especially vulnerable during their summer months.

Climate Impact Lab described this year’s El Niño as a “postcard from the future”, delivering temperatures that will become normal in just a few decades.

The statement recommended directing emergency response efforts towards high-priority regions to help tackle heat-related mortality in the coming months.

“This report allows decision makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months,” said Michael Greenstone, economist at the University of Chicago and co-founder of the lab.