The Phoenix of Tehran: Why the ‘Twelve-Day War’ Has Not Broken Iran

In the Western narrative, the final two days of strikes have been framed as the final blow to the Iranian leadership. While the loss of such major figures undoubtedly represents a significant blow to the Iranian political and military establishment, the Iranian reaction over the past day or two has proven to be unexpected. Rather than descending into chaos as many might have anticipated due to the loss of such major figures within the Iranian military and political establishment, their reaction has proven to be swift and coordinated.

It was assumed that the loss of such major figures as Secretary of Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani, and Brigadier General Gholamreza Soleimani would cause significant chaos within th e Iranian establishment. Instead, the swift and coordinated reaction by the Iranian military suggests that the Iranian establishment had already developed contingency plans that would allow them to react and operate even in the face of such significant loss.

The losses are clearly significant on an emotional and symbolic level, but Iran’s leadership has responded by projecting continuity, control and an ability to retaliate across multiple fronts in the Middle East.

Rather than appearing shaken, the Iranian system has so far looked more resilient and structurally intact than many expected. Despite major losses within its political and military ranks, the state still appears functional and far from collapse. Instead of buckling under pressure from the international community and a prolonged regional conflict, Iran appears to be absorbing the blows while continuing to respond militarily and politically.

Much of the outside analysis that has failed has been based on an understanding of the individuals within the Iranian system.

However, the removal of Larijani, who is seen as the thinking brain behind the Iranian system, is not going to topple the Supreme National Security Council. In fact, it may result in an even more hardline policy, as the voices of reason are not at the table. Similarly, the attempt to divide the Basij and internal security forces that were attempted in response to the assassination of Soleimani failed. In truth, the Iranian military is decentralised. This is a model that has been beneficial in an asymmetric war.

Sanctions, isolation, and war have created redundancy in their military, political, and technological infrastructures. Their missiles and drones continue to have range even in the face of significant infrastructure damage. However, the ideological commitment is also an important part of the Iranian system. Within the Islamic tradition, martyrdom is not seen as defeat but as a way of galvanising the opposition. This is an important part of the Iranian system that is often underestimated within the Western tradition. However, it is an important part of keeping the morale of the people and the military at a high level. 

In addition, an attack designed to break the spirit of the Iranian people may have the opposite effect and bring them closer together. In the future, the power of Iran is going to be consolidated within their ruling elite. Individuals such as Mojtaba Khamenei and Hossein Salami may be in a position of greater power and potentially bring in an informal war cabinet that is focused on survival and not politics. In addition, the Iranian allies within the region may be in a position to gain more freedom and potentially act on their own. This may bring significant and unpredictable change within the Middle East.

Ultimately, the U.S. and Israel may point to tactical victories from targeted killings, but the strategic question will still be up in the air. The predicted implosion hasn’t occurred. Iran has struck back with speed, intent, and power, with a warfare mentality that is agile, decentralized, and ideologically driven.

The loss of Larijani and Soleimani will be a severe blow, but Iran is making the most of this opportunity to demonstrate a collective response to retaliation, pushing back against the narrative of weakness.

The Islamic Republic may not emerge unscathed, but it is certainly shown itself to be flexible and resilient under pressure, becoming tougher and maybe even more mercurial on the international stage.