UFC on ESPN 64: Brandon Moreno seeks end to Mexico skid

(FIELD LEVEL MEDIA): The UFC makes its seventh trip to Mexico with Saturday’s card at Arena CDMX that features a flyweight fight between Brandon Moreno and Steve Erceg.

Moreno, 31, is coming off a win over Amir Albazi in November, but the two-time former flyweight champ is 0-2-1 in three previous UFC fights in his home country. That includes a split decision loss to Brandon Royval in February 2024 before rebounding against Albazi.

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“Right now, I feel in an amazing balance,” Brandon Moreno told reporters this week. “I feel I’m in the best shape of my life. I feel in my prime, and I have to show it. I have to execute, like my coaches say, but I’m ready to do it.”

Erceg arrives in Mexico City riding a two-fight losing streak after opening 2024 with a knockout of Matt Schnell. The 29-year-old dropped a title fight against Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 301 in Rio de Janeiro before getting dropped by Kai Kara-France at UFC 305 in Australia.

Moreno (22-8-2 MMA, 10-4-2 UFC) opened as the -185 favourite at BetMGM, but those odds have shortened even further to -250 as he has been backed by 79 percent of the money. The total bets are almost split, with Erceg (12-3, 3-2) drawing 48 percent as the +200 underdog.

“I know the state of the flyweight division right now. It’s a lot of fighters, a lot of contenders, trying to get the opportunity for the title,” Brandon Moreno said. “I know I was the champion. I know I had the opportunity before.

“So I was very, very conscious to understand that maybe I had to fight one or two more times in the future.”

Other main card matches

MANUEL TORRES (15-3, 3-1) vs. DREW DOBER (27-14, 13-10)

The co-main event is a lightweight fight. Torres graduated from Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021 and won his first three UFC fights. However, he’s coming off a loss to Ignacio Bahamondes at UFC 306 in September.

Dober, 36, is one of the elder statesmen in the division. He has dropped three of his past four fights, including a loss to Jean Silva in his hometown of Denver last summer.

The tightest fight on the main card, Dober has drawn 60 percent of the bets as the -125 favorite while Torres has been backed by 56 percent of the money at +105.

KELVIN GASTELUM (18-9, 13-9) vs. JOE PYFER (13-3, 4-1)

Gastelum returns to the middleweight division, where he is 7-6 with one no contest. The former title contender is seeking to reestablish himself. Pyfer split a pair of fights last year, and is coming off a knockout win over Marc-Andre Barriault at UFC 303.

Gastelum opened as one of the biggest underdogs on the card but has seen his odds shift from +400 to +240 while being backed by 65 percent of the bets. Pyfer has still been supported by 84 percent of the money at -300.

RAUL ROSAS JR. (10-1, 4-1) vs. VINCE MORALES (11-9, 3-7)

The 20-year-old Rosas is already making his sixth UFC appearance in a bantamweight fight against promotion veteran Morales. Another DWCS alum, Rosas is coming off a loss to Mongolia’s Aori Qileng at UFC 306, while the 34-year-old Morales lost a decision to Elijah Smith last month.

Rosas has drawn one-sided support from the public, with 65 percent of the bets and 92 percent of the money backing him to beat Morales (+350).

DAVID MARTINEZ (11-1, 0-0) vs. SAIMON OLIVEIRA (18-5, 0-2)

Martinez is fighting in his home country for his UFC debut, while Oliveira steps into the Octagon for the first time in more than two years. Oliveira, 33, hasn’t fought since being stopped by Daniel Marcos at UFC 283.

Martinez is the heavy -450 favourite and leads the main card with 92 percent of the money backing him to win. However, that has led to Oliveira being backed by 66 percent of the total bets at +350.

RONALDO RODRIGUEZ (17-2, 2-0) vs. KEVIN BORJAS (9-3, 0-2)

The main card begins in the flyweight division. Rodriguez, 25, is a rising star who has won his first two fights in the division. “Lazy Boy” is also very popular, having amassed more than 2 million followers on Instagram despite having only two fights on his UFC resume.

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Borjas has begun his UFC career going the opposite direction with losses to Joshua Van and Alessandro Costa, but is still considered a promising flyweight.

That is represented by Borjas receiving 60 percent of the bets and 57 percent of the money at +130, while Rodriguez is the -155 favourite.