UNICEF warns of rising school dropouts as Pakistan misses enrolment targets

ISLAMABAD: UNICEF has warned that nearly 6 million more children could drop out of school worldwide by 2026 as global education aid could fall to $3.2 billion — about 24 per cent less than 2023.

The global agency warned that with such a reduction, the number of out-of-school children worldwide could rise from 27.2 million to 27.8 million by the end of 2026.

UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell said that every dollar cut from education is not just a budgetary decision but a child’s future put at risk.

She added that education often acts as a lifeline, connecting children to essential services such as health, protection and nutrition, while also offering the strongest chance to escape poverty and build a better life.

According to UNICEF’s analysis, the cuts are expected to hit hardest in West and Central Africa, where 1.9 million children could be deprived of schooling, followed by the Middle East and North Africa, where an additional 1.4 million children may be forced out of classrooms. Other regions are also expected to face significant losses.

The analysis further noted that in 28 countries, at least one-quarter of aid for education from primary to secondary levels will be lost. Côte d’Ivoire and Mali are among the worst affected, with enrolment projected to decline by 4 per cent — equivalent to 340,000 and 180,000 students respectively.

Primary education is likely to suffer the most, with funding expected to drop by one-third, deepening the global learning crisis. The report warned that affected children could collectively lose an estimated $164 billion in future lifetime earnings.

In Pakistan, despite a declared “national education emergency,” about 22 million children aged 5 to 16 remain out of school, according to the Pakistan Institute of Education.

The report shows 38 per cent of school-age children are unenrolled nationwide, with Balochistan worst affected at 69 per cent, followed by Sindh at 44 per cent, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa at 34 per cent and Punjab at 27 per cent. Even in Islamabad, 15 per cent of children are out of school.

The numbers stand in stark contrast to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s pledge in May 2024 to enroll all out-of-school children by the end of 2025. The government had promised new schools, large-scale teacher hiring, and cash transfers to encourage enrolment. But these plans have largely stalled, hindered by underfunding, bureaucracy, and corruption.

Education spending remains at 1.7 per cent of GDP — well below the UNESCO-recommended 4 to 6 per cent. “When you allocate billions for ghost schools while children sit under trees, what message are you sending?” asked Dr Ayesha Siddiqui of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute.

Ground reports show ghost schools in Balochistan and Sindh, closures in KP’s merged districts due to security concerns, and flood-hit areas in Punjab and Sindh where displaced children have not returned to class. Girls are the most affected, making up 53 per cent of all out-of-school children. “Girls face a triple burden: distance, safety and discrimination,” said rights activist Farzana Bari.

Education Minister Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui recently claimed over one million new enrolments in the past year but admitted population growth, devolution and climate shocks have slowed progress. “This is a multi-year effort, not a switch,” he said.

Opposition parties dismissed the claims as “political gimmickry.” A PTI MNA alleged that funds for school rehabilitation were diverted to projects ahead of elections. Sources in the Planning Commission also confirmed large portions of the emergency fund remain unspent due to provincial bottlenecks and poor monitoring.

International partners have voiced alarm. UNICEF, Save the Children and UNESCO jointly warned that Pakistan risks “losing an entire generation” if decisive action is not taken within six months.

For families, government promises mean little. In Quetta’s outskirts, 12-year-old Arif spends her days at a brick kiln. “They come before elections, take our thumbprints, and disappear,” said her father.

With just four months left in 2025, the government’s “zero out-of-school children” target looks increasingly out of reach — and critics say the education emergency has remained more rhetoric than reality.