War clouds, strategic opportunity: why Pakistan must act now to unlock its oil & gas potential

As global tensions intensify and conflict once again threatens the stability of critical energy corridors, Pakistan stands at a defining crossroads.

The ongoing geopolitical unrest particularly around key transit routes such as the Strait of Hormuz has exposed the fragility of global energy supply chains. For Pakistan, a country heavily reliant on imported LNG and petroleum products, this is not just a crisis it is a strategic wake-up call. The disruption of global energy flows has historically triggered price volatility, supply uncertainty, and fiscal strain on import-dependent economies.

Pakistan is no exception. However, within this challenge lies a significant opportunity: the urgent revival and prioritisation of indigenous oil and gas exploration.

Pakistan possesses untapped hydrocarbon potential across multiple basins, including Balochistan, Sindh, and offshore regions. Yet, exploration activity has remained subdued due to regulatory bottlenecks, pricing uncertainties, and delayed decision-making.

At a time when global energy security is under threat, Pakistan cannot afford inertia. The ongoing conflict has driven international oil prices upward and placed immense pressure on LNG cargo availability. Countries with strong domestic production capabilities are far better positioned to weather such shocks. Pakistan must therefore shift its focus from reactive energy procurement to proactive resource development.

A key starting point is restoring investor confidence. Exploration and production companies require policy clarity, timely approvals, and above all, predictable pricing frameworks. The persistent delays in price notifications and regulatory indecision have discouraged investment and slowed down field development. This must change immediately.The government must send a clear and unequivocal signal: indigenous gas will be prioritized, fairly priced, and promptly monetised.

Incentive structures under existing petroleum policies should be fully honored, without reinterpretation or delay. Where gaps exist, targeted reforms should be introduced to accelerate exploration in high-potential zones. Equally important is the need to streamline coordination between regulatory bodies. Fragmented decision-making and overlapping mandates have long hindered the sector’s progress. In times of crisis, institutional alignment is not optional, it is essential.

Pakistan’s reliance on imported LNG, often at volatile spot prices, has proven to be both economically and strategically risky. Increasing domestic gas production is not just an economic imperative; it is a matter of national security.

Furthermore, the private sector must be empowered to play a larger role. Companies operating within Pakistan have demonstrated technical capability and resilience, even under challenging conditions. With the right policy environment, they can rapidly scale up exploration and production activities.The current geopolitical environment should serve as a catalyst for bold decision-making. Pakistan must not wait for the crisis to deepen before acting.

The time to unlock indigenous resources is now. In the face of global uncertainty, nations that control their energy destiny will emerge stronger. Pakistan has the resources, the expertise, and the opportunity. What it needs is decisive action.