Does PTI have a plan B?

Pakistan’s political dynamics often follow a predictable trajectory. The journey of the People’s Party, Muslim League-Nawaz, and now Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf bears an uncanny resemblance.

Situations that may seem novel to PTI’s followers have been previously endured by the leadership and political workers of both the People’s Party and Nawaz League. Their past trials and tribulations have equipped them with strategies to survive even the harshest political storms. However, Imran Khan appears resistant to adopting these strategies, perhaps to his detriment.

The power play between the Pakistani military establishment and popular political parties has historically tarnished the former’s reputation. However, leaders like Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif, and now Imran Khan can be credited for standing upt o a much more powerful establishment, despite the inherent risks.

Interestingly, all three had histories of rubbing shoulders with the establishment first for political gain. All three eventually ended up facing severe consequences including execution, exile, or imprisonment.

People’s Party and Nawaz League, having been through the crucible of political confrontations, managed to weather severe threats to their existence. In times of crisis, these parties showcased political acumen, ensuring their survival.

For instance, when Bhutto was executed, the leadership mantle was passed on within his family, first to his wife Nusrat and then to his daughter Benazir. Similarly, Nawaz Sharif, when facing incarceration, entrusted the party’s leadership to his brother, Shehbaz Sharif, ensuring continuity. Now, as history would have it, Maryam Nawaz stands ready to assume a pivotal role within her party.

Contrastingly, the PTI chairman faces a unique challenge. He lacks a family member ready to take over PTI’s leadership in his absence. The absence of a clear successor within his close circle puts Khan in a precarious position.

Entrusting party leadership to someone outside his immediate family is fraught with challenges, given the prevalent mistrust in politics. With him currently imprisoned and facing potential extended incarceration, the need for a trusted leader to steer the party is becoming more urgent and imminent by the day.

The looming question is, who will take the reins of PTI, especially in the face of upcoming elections?

The situation is further complicated by the fact that many of PTI’s prominent figures are either incarcerated, absconding, or wanted by law enforcement. How can a party, whose leaders are largely behind bars or on the run, effectively contest in elections? One potential saviour for PTI could be Hamid Khan, a respected lawyer and longstanding PTI member. With his legal expertise, Khan has been a bedrock of support for Imran Khan during trying times. Entrusting him with the party’s leadership could be a strategic move to ensure PTI’s survival, at least until the elections.

Despite the overwhelming public support, PTI faces the genuine risk of being sidelined in the upcoming elections. Even if PTI succeeds in securing a small number of assembly seats, it would signify a monumental achievement given the current circumstances.

Many would argue such an outcome would hint at electoral malpractice, especially considering Khan’s immense popularity. If free and fair elections were conducted, Khan would likely emerge victorious. But the political landscape is far from ideal. This brings us back to the earlier contemplation of a Plan B, similar to the paths taken by Benazir Bhutto in 1997 and Nawaz Sharif in 2002.

In the ever uncertain game of thrones in Pakistan, running popular parties has proved to be like a long and gruelling marathon. The question that remains is whether PTI and its leader has learnt anything from his political adversaries to ensure a future for PTI, or if he will continue on a path that could lead to a political cul-de-sac.