Pakistan’s resilience tested by rainfall

As Pakistan battles the growing cycle of excessive rainfall this year, the country’s financial needs to meet the cost of climate change related disasters pose a monumental challenge.

By the latest count reported on Tuesday, at least 200 people had died while more than 500 were injured in rain-related incidents across Pakistan.

More alarming were the incidents of cloud bursts reported from different regions, reinforcing the unprecedented nature of worsening climate related trends.

In addition to the human toll are the large material costs, set to rise in future amid forecasts of a continued spell of heavy rainfall every summer.

Meeting the cost of adapting to climate change in Pakistan, according to the UN’s ‘Common Country Analysis’ report for 2024, will require a staggering U$348 billion by 2030.

“Despite being among the top 10 countries most vulnerable to climate change, Pakistan lags behind in international climate finance accessibility, with domestic private sector contributions remaining particularly low,” said the UN report citing research by the World Bank.

The required financing estimates include U$152 billion for adaptation and resilience, while another U$196 billion will be required for de-carbonization.

For the moment, the financing gap is well beyond Pakistan’s resources, while the mood among the global community clearly suggests limited chances of sufficient international funding to meet the gap. Additionally, US president Donald Trump’s withdrawal of support for international multilateral institutions this year, has cast a further doubt on resources coming through to help countries like Pakistan avert future climate related disasters.

The climate challenge facing Pakistan must begin to be resolved through two inter-related emergency steps.

First, Pakistan can just not afford to witness its agricultural sector continuing to decline, as the future of the most vital trends for climate change are fundamentally tied to this sector. For years, Pakistan’s average yields from its crops, have mostly lagged behind as successive governments have ignored this sector.

A major setback to the outlook for agriculture in Pakistan through a policy failure came just last year (2024). The government of the Punjab which controls the largest agricultural economy among Pakistan’s provinces, first announced a price of Rupees 3900 per maund (40 kgs.) but then abruptly withdrew that decision just when the wheat crop had been harvested. Reports from across Pakistan still suggest that small farmers continue to remain under debt from their wheat harvest of a year ago.

Besides, other main crops continue to face declines in production due to the effects of climate change. Conditions across agriculture are worsening today as little has been done to help farmers recover from such losses.

Additionally, Pakistan’s depleting forests have only aggravated the fallout from climate change. These trends clearly suggest a need to help reduce the economic stress on farmers, as a way to lift Pakistan’s quality of climate conditions.

Second, Pakistan requires a fundamental change of its priorities related to national development. With climate change presenting an existential threat for the future, Pakistan needs to devote all of its available resources to climate related needs. In the past five years, mounting costs of food items has caused food insecurity of the kind never witnessed before in Pakistan’s history, presenting an added need for lifting of the agricultural sector.

In this journey to the future, Pakistan needs to pause other areas of planned development, notably roads and transport projects. This is essential to not just to sharpen the focus on what is needed the most for the coming times. More centrally, saving Pakistan from the effects of climate change could easily become an increasing national survival issue for times to come.