Strategic Standoff!

As tensions escalate in the region, Pakistan’s missile system is once again under attack by US sanctions, marking the fifth set of sanctions in the last three years. Previous sanctions have targeted Belarusian and Chinese companies contributing to Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme, as well as a few Pakistani companies. We saw these sanctions earlier this year in April and September, and now, the US has imposed sanctions on specific Pakistani entities. The National Defence Complex (NDC), a cornerstone of Pakistan’s defense capabilities for over four decades, is among those targeted.

The NDC has been instrumental in advancing Pakistan’s missile technology, leading to the development and production of powerful missiles such as the Nassar, Babur, and Shaheen series. These missiles are vital to Pakistan’s defense infrastructure, ensuring its strategic deterrence. The US Department of Defense’s statement claims these entities, including the NDC, Affiliates International, and Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, are knowingly contributing to the development of weapons of mass destruction, which it believes is a growing threat. US officials specifically mentioned that the NDC had acquired special vehicle chassis to support missile launches, triggering the sanctions. In response, Pakistan has called the sanctions discriminatory and warned of their dangerous implications for regional stability, particularly highlighting India’s growing missile capabilities as a significant factor in this ongoing missile race.

While the US focuses on Pakistan’s missile programme, it conveniently overlooks India’s own missile development. India is continuously working on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), capable of reaching distances far greater than Pakistan’s missiles. Pakistan’s longest-range missile, the Shaheen-3, has a range of 2,750 km, significant but far shorter than the 5,000 km range of India’s ICBMs. This presents Pakistan with a dilemma: it must strengthen its missile capabilities in response to India’s growing nuclear and missile power, while simultaneously managing international scrutiny and sanctions.

One of the US’s major concerns stems from its fear that Pakistan’s missile systems could potentially target Israel. The US has been vocal about the possibility of a ‘lunatic leader’ coming to power in Pakistan and using nuclear weapons irresponsibly, particularly against Israel. This narrative became more prominent after President Biden’s remark labeling Pakistan as an ‘incoherent state’, often used when US-Pakistan relations are at a low. These remarks underscore a pattern of U.S. intimidation toward Pakistan, especially when there is diplomatic strain.

US Deputy National Security Advisor Jonathan Finer recently elaborated on the true concern: Pakistan’s missile capabilities could eventually extend beyond South Asia, specifically to Israel. Initially, Pakistan’s missile development was justified by its need for deterrence against India, with US officials acknowledging this when Pakistan acquired nuclear weapons. However, the new sanctions aim to prevent Pakistan from developing missiles with a range exceeding 3,000 km, a threshold that could target Israel.

The geopolitical chessboard is evolving, and Israel is quickly positioning itself as a global power broker. Israel’s strategic alliances, such as those forged with UAE and Saudi Arabia through the Abraham Accords, have redefined the Middle Eastern balance. Its covert operations against Iran, including the targeted assassination of nuclear scientists, reflect a strategy to eliminate perceived threats. In this context, Pakistan’s missile development poses a potential challenge to Israel’s regional dominance, making it a target of U.S. sanctions.

But while the US and Israel focus on Pakistan, India’s growing missile capabilities are met with a different approach. The US continues to empower India, equipping it with cutting-edge military technologies, including satellite capabilities, through defense agreements and collaborations. India’s membership in the Quad, a regional defense alliance, further solidifies its strategic position, often at the expense of Pakistan’s security concerns. This double standard in U.S. policy raises crucial questions about its true motivations.

Amid this complex dynamic, an intriguing report emerged suggesting that Pakistan had agreed to allow China to set up a naval base in Gwadar Port, allegedly in exchange for second-strike nuclear capabilities. While Pakistan’s foreign office has denied this speculation, the fact remains that Pakistan, like India, is increasingly relying on external allies for strategic security. However, Pakistan faces a unique challenge in balancing its alliances, especially since it is not a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, unlike China. This puts Pakistan in a precarious position as it seeks to develop its nuclear deterrence, particularly when its allies are bound by international treaties restricting nuclear assistance.

The US sanctions targeting Pakistan’s missile program are not just about regional security; they are also about the U.S. positioning itself within a larger global narrative. Finer’s comments about the eventual reach of Pakistan’s missiles, including the possibility of targeting U.S. soil, reflect the growing concerns within Washington. The U.S. has already targeted Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran over their nuclear capabilities, and now Pakistan is in its sights.

This situation calls for Pakistan to rethink its diplomatic strategy. Unlike countries like Turkey and Malaysia, which have consistently stood firm against U.S. pressure, Pakistan often finds itself yielding to external influence. Pakistan must adopt a more assertive foreign policy stance, one that prioritizes national interests over personal or elite interests, which are often influenced by external factors such as foreign investments or family ties abroad.

Pakistan’s foreign policy should be crafted by experts who understand the nuances of both national and international diplomacy, rather than by individuals with vested interests. National security should not be compromised by the private interests of elites, whose children study abroad or whose assets lie in foreign countries.

For a senior US official to openly express concerns about the proliferation of Pakistan’s missile technology and its potential threat to the U.S. is a dramatic shift in diplomatic rhetoric. This growing pressure from the U.S., Israel, and India necessitates a comprehensive reassessment of Pakistan’s stance on defense and diplomacy.

As noted by Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center, the situation is far more complex than simply imposing sanctions. Pakistan must prioritize internal security, focusing on empowering civilian entities and fostering a civilian-military collaboration akin to what China has done. The future of Pakistan’s nuclear program may continue to unfold despite sanctions, as evidenced by recent successful tests, like the Pakistan Navy’s flight test of the SMASH SLBM in November.

However, Pakistan must also address internal challenges, such as the leaks of sensitive nuclear information, which could jeopardise its security. Until these issues are addressed, the road ahead remains fraught with both internal and external challenges, requiring a firm and strategic response to secure Pakistan’s place in a rapidly changing world order.