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Trump’s Afghan policy awaits clarity amid US-Taliban prisoner deal


  • Tahir Khan
  • Jan 22, 2025

On January 21, the Afghan interim government extended a conciliatory gesture to US President Donald Trump, proposing dialogue as a way forward to resolving issues. The gesture came in the form of a prisoner swap, where the Taliban freed two Americans, and the US released an Afghan national.   

“The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan considers this exchange as a good example of resolving issues through dialogue,” the Afghan Foreign Ministry said after it announced the release of a prisoner, Khan Muhammad, who was in US custody for nearly 20 years.

“The Islamic Emirate views positive steps taken by the United States that help normalisation and expansion of relations between the two countries,” said the statement, just hours after Trump assumed office for the second time.

An Afghan Foreign Ministry official, Zakir Jalaly, wrote on X on January 21 that the prisoner “exchange is not only important that an Afghan is freed and reunited with his family, but it is also a significant development that the communication channels between the Afghan government and the United States are opened and both sides can have fruitful negotiations.”

Afghanistan Deputy Foreign Minister Sher Abbas Stanekzai, speaking in Kabul a day after President Trump’s inauguration, hoped that the US would honour the Doha agreement, signed in February 2020, which paved the way for the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan.

On its part, the US had been critical of the Taliban approach towards the Doha agreement, which also called for intra-Afghan dialogue and a roadmap for a future setup. But serious intra-Afghan conflict had never taken place and the Taliban entered Kabul in August 2021 without much resistance before they declared the Islamic Emirate.

Although the Taliban rulers have adopted a reconciliatory tone, the Trump administration’s response will be judged in the coming weeks and months.

A day ahead of his inauguration on January 19, Trump, speaking to supporters at Capital One Arena in downtown Washington, DC, threatened the Taliban rulers with blocking all financial assistance if they do not return the American weapons.

“If we’re going to pay billions of dollars a year, tell them we’re not going to give them the money unless they give back our military equipment,” Trump said.

 Experts believe President Trump’s approach to Afghanistan is unlikely to deviate significantly in his second term from the policies of his predecessor. However, certain adjustments may be necessary to address evolving security dynamics and geopolitical challenges in the region.

“While Afghanistan may not rank among the highest priorities for the United States, it remains an integral component of Trump’s regional strategy, aligned with broader security objectives and the protection of American interests,” according to the US-based Afghan professor Dr Ubaid ur Rehman Burhani.

 Dr Burhani argues that the extent of US influence in Afghanistan will depend on continuous assessments of ground realities, with potential engagement with the Taliban — whether direct or indirect — conditioned on stricter measures to safeguard US national security interests. 

President Trump’s Afghanistan policy is expected to remain largely consistent with his predecessor’s, with minor adjustments to address regional security and geopolitical challenges. Though not a top US priority, Afghanistan remains central to Trump’s regional strategy and American security interests. US influence will hinge on ground assessments, with potential Taliban engagement subject to stricter conditions to safeguard national security.

The analysts of foreign policy and regional politics are trying to analyse what the Trump administration’s policy will be about Afghanistan.

During the inauguration speech at the Capitol on January 20, President Trump did not mention anything about the US approach to Afghanistan under the Taliban. But in fact, he did not elaborate on many other foreign policy subjects in this speech, probably to avoid alerting his opposition in the Senate and the Congress and the wider critics of his policies.

 The US and NATO troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan was Trump’s agenda in his first term. However, before it could be fully accomplished, he was replaced by Biden after the 2020 presidential elections.

The final phase of withdrawal and evacuation from Afghanistan ended messily, causing embarrassment to the US during his (Biden) campaign in recent elections. Trump raised this matter on several occasions, asserting that he would undertake a thorough investigation and will make those responsible for this humiliation accountable. Anticipating this backlash, just hours before the inauguration, the outgoing President Biden issued an anticipatory presidential pardon to Chairman Joint Staff General Mark Milley, who was in charge of these and several other military matters at that time.

Trump called Biden an ‘anti-war president.’. Therefore, concerning the United States’ Afghan policy under his administration, there are not many chances of going back to the boots on the ground or involving the United States in a major counter-terrorism or counter-insurgency campaign in Afghanistan or on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. However, this also does not mean that the US will be oblivious to Afghanistan and the region. 

Pakistan’s former ambassador to Afghanistan, Mansoor Ahmad Khan, says Trump’s administration’s unrelenting focus will be on preventing China’s expansive footprint in Afghanistan and around.

“For that matter, Trump has a useful working equation with the Afghan Taliban coming from the Doha peace deal, which was negotiated between the 2018-2020 under former special representative Zalmay Khalilzad with active support from Pakistan,” according to ambassador Khan.

He said Khalilzad has been active on social media for the past several months, but it is difficult to predict if he would get a role again relating to Afghanistan and the region in Trump’s second administration.

The Taliban leaders in their remarks have also been referring to the working equation they had with Trump, hoping that it would translate into deeper engagement this time for recognition of their government and completion of the Doha peace deal’s commitments.

In the meantime, on the very first day of the Trump administration, the US and Afghan Taliban executed a deal for the release of two Americans, Ryan Corbin and William Wallace McKenty, in exchange for an Afghan Taliban figure, Khan Muhammad, who was incarcerated in the US for the past two decades. The timing of the deal, negotiated under the Biden administration but executed at the start of the Trump administration, appears to hold deliberate symbolic significance. 

The Afghan interim government is also cautious about the weekly dollar injection of $40-50 million into the Afghan economy by the US support for humanitarian assistance, which has been playing an important role in keeping the Afghan economy afloat and maintaining a high value of Afghani against the dollar. The Taliban, cognisant of the Trump administration’s tough stance on foreign aid, have recently undertaken several auctions of Afghani. After the Trump administration announced suspending all foreign aid payments for 90 days during which it will holistically review the foreign aid policy, the Afghani’s value has taken a major dip in Afghan currency today. Afghani, which a few days ago was trading at 64 to a dollar, is today trading at 75 against the dollar. 

The contours of the Trump administration’s overall Afghan policy would only be fully clear after internal reviews and consultations with Trump’s cabinet members and his close advisers. This is likely to take a few weeks.

Trump’s Afghan policy
Author

Tahir Khan

The writer is a freelancer and covers Pak-Afghan affairs

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