Guddu may see 1.2m cusecs flood in worst-case scenario

ISLAMABAD: The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) on Friday warned that the Indus River would attain extremely high flood level at Guddu Barrage in Sindh on September 5 and 6, with the worst-case scenario of 1.2 million cusecs flow.

Different estimates subjected to some variables were shared to make predictions after the five rivers of Punjab meet the mighty Indus River at Kot Mithan in Rajanpur district of southern Punjab before entering Sindh.

At the same time, the heavy to be produced by the latest monsoon spell would also affect the situation.

Read more: Fresh monsoon system starts affecting flood-hit Punjab

It said the waterflow would be between 900,000 to 950,00 cusecs at Panjnad Headworks on September 3 and 4.

However, the river flow would be 825,000 to 900,000 cusecs if dykes along the rivers were breached at suitable points, said the NDMA.

Further south, the worst-case scenario shows that Guddu Barrage could witness a flow of up to 1.2 million cusecs.

However, the estimates — apart from the worst-case scenario — vary, showing a low of 800,000 cusecs and high of 1,100,000 cusecs.

The reason is simple: no one can exactly know how much water will disperse along the path of river or rivers as well as where and when they would breach the dykes.

Read more: Extremely high flood in Chenab, Ravi, Sutlej submerges more areas

FLOOD IN THE PLAINS OF SINDH

Meanwhile, the waterflow at Guddu would be between 750,000 cusecs to 900,000 cusecs if the authorities decide to blow up dyke or dykes.

On the other hand, the NDMA predicted the possible flood figures for the two other barrages — Sukkur and Kotri — in Sindh as well.

At Sukkur Barrage, the Indus River would reach 800,000 cusecs to 1.1 million cusecs.

In the case of Kotri Barrage, the possible flood level is expected to remain within the range of 800,000 cusecs and one million cusecs.