Sharp drop in Chenab River inflow reported by WAPDA

ISLAMABAD: India has reportedly sharply reduced the water flow from Chenab River to Pakistan. On Saturday, Pakistan Commission of Indus Waters (PCIW) said that water flow has reduced from 105,200 cusecs to 4,800 cusecs. The move comes after India unilaterally suspended the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) 1960 with Pakistan on April 23, 2025.

Media reports, quoting the Ministry of Water Resources, said that these numbers are markedly different from normal fluctuations. Post the 4,800 cusecs water flow, things seemed to return to normal on Sunday.

As per the terms of the treaty, if the water flow goes down in Chenab River, India may hold up to 50 per cent of the water, and in case there is a flooding situation in the river, India can release up to 130,000 cusecs of water into Pakistan. On Friday (May 29), Pakistan received 110,000 cusecs of water, and on Saturday the levels dropped to as low as 4,800 cusecs.

These unprecedented fluctuations can adversely affect the agricultural sector in Pakistan, primarily the rice zone. As a result of lower water flows, the Punjab government has also requested the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) to increase water flows from the Mangla reservoir. However, that in turn may also cause problems for Mangla filling requirements.

For now, IRSA has increased the water flows from Mangla reservoir to 25,000 cusecs (from previously 10,000 cusecs) to fulfil Punjab’s rice zone water needs.

Meanwhile, the Pakistan Meteorological Department’s (PMD) Flood Forecasting Division said that the Marala Barrage water flow was normal. This is the second water disruption from India in May 2025. Earlier in the month, India had virtually stopped the Chenab water flow, without any intimation to the Pakistan’s authorities.

Pakistan’s leadership has taken a strict stance over abeyance of IWT. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has called the treaty “red line” issuing a warning to India that no such action endangering millions of lives will be allowed. Military’s spokesperson, Director General (DG) of Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif also said that if India stops Pakistan’s water, Pakistan will stop India’s breathing.

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