“No certainty that it will happen”, Dutch scientist on Pakistan earthquake

There is no certainty that an earthquake will happen, says Dutch scientist Frank Hoogerbeets, after his earlier prediction of an earthquake in Pakistan came under criticism.

Often when we say that there is the possibility of a stronger earthquake, rumors appear that "there will be a big earthquake." These rumors are false! There can be indicators, yes. But there is no certainty that it will happen.

— Frank Hoogerbeets (@hogrbe) October 2, 2023

He wrote, “Often when we say that there is the possibility of a stronger earthquake, rumors appear that “there will be a big earthquake.” These rumors are false! There can be indicators, yes. But there is no certainty that it will happen”.

On Monday, Dutch scientist Frank Hoogerbeets had made a prediction that a strong earthquake in Pakistan in 48 hours. In a post on X, quoting a tweet from the Solar System Geometry Survey (SSGEOS) he said, “Planetary geometry is difficult to interpret with four conjunctions spread out over the next 10 days. As far as I can tell, 1-3 October will be more critical.”

The prediction said that a significant increase in electrical activity occurred along the fault lines in Balochistan’s Chaman, raising concerns about the possibility of a strong earthquake in Pakistan.

Soon after, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) issued a statement that it is impossible to predict the exact moment and location of an earthquake.

Here’s the truth behind the Dutch scientist’s Pakistan earthquake prediction

Pakistan’s National Seismic Monitoring Centre (NSMC) also issued a statement saying that while a fault line may trigger an earthquake, it is impossible to predict it with any degree of accuracy when it would happen.

PMD echoed NSMC’s statement saying that Pakistan is located at the boundary of two large tectonic plates that extend from Sonmiani to the country’s northern portion and earthquakes can happen anywhere within these borderlines. However, PMD have not received any kind of warning or instructions from any international organisation regarding earthquake, the statement added.

Following these statements, in the late hours of the night between Monday and Tuesday, Hoogerbeets took to X once again and posted two statements, ten minutes apart, accepting PMD’s statement that it is impossible to predict earthquakes with accuracy.

Then quoting SSGEOS’s post once again, he wrote, “On 30 September we recorded atmospheric fluctuations that included parts of and near Pakistan. This is correct. It can be an indicator of an upcoming stronger tremor (as was the case with Morocco). But we cannot say with certainty that it will happen.”

On 30 September we recorded atmospheric fluctuations that included parts of and near Pakistan. This is correct. It can be an indicator of an upcoming stronger tremor (as was the case with Morocco). But we cannot say with certainty that it will happen. https://t.co/B6MtclMOpe

— Frank Hoogerbeets (@hogrbe) October 2, 2023

Pakistan is located at the boundary of two large tectonic plates and earthquakes can happen anywhere within these borderlines. However, NSMC and PMD say that it is impossible to predict it with any degree of accuracy when it would happen.