Trump meets Asim Munir: Is Pakistan regaining strategic relevance?

On Thursday, a rather significant diplomatic engagement took place at the White House, where United States (US) President Donald Trump hosted Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Asim Munir, for a private luncheon.

While a meeting between a US president and Pakistani military leader is not unexpected, this particular luncheon stands out. The last instance of a Pakistani military chief meeting a sitting US president was in 2001. Pervez Musharraf, then both Pakistan’s army chief and president, held discussions with George W Bush.

It is rare for a sitting US president to extend a formal invitation to a foreign military leader, particularly one from Pakistan at a time when the US is strategically deepening its partnership with India amidst the broader context of countering China’s regional influence.

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Why would Trump take such a step, especially in light of vehement opposition expressed by the Indian side? In particular, as the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly downplayed US involvement in the recent Pakistan-India ceasefire following heightened military tensions in May.  

The significance of this meeting extends beyond its rarity; it carries substantial geopolitical implications, especially in light of the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict.  

Backdrop

To understand the meeting better, it is important to consider the prevailing geopolitical environment first. The meeting occurred amid escalating hostilities in the Middle East, with Israel and Iran locked into a week-long conflict. Iran’s deployment of a hypersonic missile and threats to target even US military bases in the region reveal the volatility and potential for broader escalation.  

Although the US has so far refrained from direct military involvement, it continues to supply aid and military equipment to Israel.

The meeting also follows recent military confrontations between India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed neighbours who narrowly avoided full-scale war. Pakistan’s successful execution of Operation Bunyan ul Marsoos later, Trump wasted no time in claiming personal credit for brokering a ceasefire that de-escalated tensions in South Asia.

The reality media mogul-turned businessman highlighted the ‘critical role’ his intervention played in preventing further deterioration of regional stability between two nuclear powers.

Soured Pakistan-US relations

Pakistan’s relations with the United States have experienced huge strain following the latter’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. Post-departure, Washington has increasingly prioritise its partnership with India, Pakistan’s longstanding rival.

It was driven by India’s emergence as a major global economy and a key player in counterbalancing China’s rise. The US and European Union have both, furthered their economic engagement with India. This has further side-lined Pakistan in the process.

What was discussed

While Trump refrained from detailing the specifics on their conversation, many widely agree that the escalating Iran-Israel conflict was a central topic.

Trump heavily focused his response on brokering ceasefire between India and Pakistan. Despite India’s official rejection of US mediation, this suggests that Washington may be seeking Pakistan’s involvement in facilitating a similar de-escalation between Iran and Israel.

Trump stated, “Well, they [Pakistan] know Iran very well, better than most”.  

Given Pakistan’s historical ties and a more ‘nuanced’ understanding of Iran, the US leadership might be hoping to depend on Pakistan’s aid in pursuing any dialogue with Iran.

Meanwhile, Asim Munir might have been more interested in an economic angle, hoping to achieve a more favourable trade deal for Pakistan. There might have been discussions with the US President to acquire military equipment, as well.

Implications of the meeting for Pakistan

The meeting between Pakistan’s army chief and Trump elicited a strong response from India. Modi denied any US mediation role in the Pakistan-India ceasefire. The Indian government also expressed ‘concerns’ over the meeting, perceiving it as diplomatic setback and fearing that Pakistan might gain strategic or political advantage from this engagement.

The Indian government, having prided itself on its economic supremacy and being the US’ tenth largest trading partner, is likely to view Washington’s direct outreach to Pakistan as a diplomatic slight.

For Pakistan, the meeting represents a diplomatic “milestone”, with the Defence Minister Khawaja Asif describing it as “significant”. He noted the absence of such ‘warmth’ in bilateral relations for several years.

The minister noted that Pakistan must strategically leverage this opportunity to advance regional stability and cooperation.

However, Asif’s remarks on the economic front were limited, reflecting the fact that the meeting’s focus appeared predominantly security and geopolitical in nature.

While the meeting may signal a potential thaw in Pakistan-US relations, it remains uncertain whether this marks a sustained return to Washington’s favour or is merely a transient episode.

Historically, Pakistan has repeatedly supported the US’ strategic interests – joining defence pacts such as SEATO and CENTO, backing US efforts during the Soviet-Afghan War, and participating in the War on Terror – often at great economic and human cost; yet with limited reciprocal benefits.

The War on Terror, in particular, inflicted severe losses on Pakistan’s economy and population while straining relations with the neighbouring Afghanistan.

The army chief’s engagements extended beyond Trump to senior US officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth – hinting at a military-centric angle to the discussions.  

Although Asim Munir also met with the Pakistani-American community – a vital source of foreign remittances to our cash-strapped economy – there is no public indication of discussions with US companies or concrete steps towards economic investment or trade agreements.

However, one of the most significant outcomes of the meeting is a possible recalibration of how the US perceives Pakistan’s strategic relevance and evolving regional dynamics.

Trump’s remarks suggested that Pakistan’s understanding of Iran could be instrumental in de-escalating the Israel-Iran conflict, hinting at a renewed role for Pakistan in broader geopolitical affairs.

The realignment could open avenues for Pakistan to assert itself as a key regional player, especially in managing Middle Eastern tensions.

Iran-Israel Conflict

Following the luncheon, Trump expressed his gratitude to the Pakistani army chief, stating that he appreciated his efforts in avoiding war. The US president stated how he “wanted to thank him [Asim Munir] for not going into war and ending it”.  

A significant point of Trump’s election campaign as his portrayal as an “anti-war” candidate. Throughout his campaign, Trump attributed various global conflicts during President Joe Biden’s tenure to the Democrat’s alleged incompetence. He stated that these conflicts “wouldn’t have happened if I were president”.

The billionaire had vowed to resolve the Russo-Ukraine War, Israel-Palestine conflict, and advocated for a more isolationist foreign policy for the US.

While the prolonged siege of Gaza by Israel may have received little attention at the White House, the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel presents a different scenario. Unlike Gaza, Iran is a sovereign state with a robust military capable of defending itself.   

Although Hamas governs Gaza, it is a militant organisation and lacks formal recognition in the international community, including membership in organisations such as the United Nations.

The current conflict may become one of the most consequential events by which Trump’s second term in office will be judge in the future.

When asked whether he discussed Iran with the Pakistan military chief, Trump remarked, “Well, they know Iran very well – better than most – and they are not happy about anything. It’s not that they are bad with Israel, they know them both actually.

“But they probably, maybe, they know Iran better.”.

Trump further noted that Pakistan could “see what’s going on and […] he [Asim Munir] agreed with me”. The US President characterised Pakistan and India as “smart” for their willingness to “end the war”.

His comments suggest a desire to resolve the Iran-Israel conflict, even as he expresses unwavering support for Israel, reportedly even approving military actions against Iran.

Read more: Overseas Pakistanis vital for country’s image: Field Marshal Asim Munir

Despite Trump’s ambiguous stance on Iran – whether to join Israel in military action or pursue immediate ceasefire – he has acknowledged the complexities of the situation. His polarised voter base likely influences his reticence on this issue, as a huge portion of the Trump’s supporters advocates for Israel to “finish what it started”, while opposing US involvement in “yet another Middle Eastern conflict”. This sentiment is also echoed by influential conservative figures, including Steve Bannon.

In this context, Pakistan could play a crucial role as an intermediary between an increasingly angered Iran in the fact of a belligerent Israel under Netanyahu hell-bent on decimating its neighbours.

The Indian Angle

India has expressed clear displeasure regarding the meeting, with the Indian Foreign Minister conveying Modi’s strong objection to any third-party mediation in Pakistan-Indian conflicts.

Several Indian media outlets stated their concern over the prospect of improved US-Pakistan relations, interpreting the meeting as a potential shift in Washington’s strategic alignment that could disadvantage India.

Modi has consistently pursued a policy aimed at “isolating Pakistan” on the international stage.

Indian security analysts might also be apprehensive that a friendlier US stance toward Pakistan might ‘embolden’ Islamabad, potentially leading to more favourable diplomatic or military terms for Pakistan in any future conflicts. India is particularly wary of any scenario where the US might support Pakistan’s position over India’s in regional disputes.

While the luncheon offers Pakistan a symbolic opportunity to improve its bilateral ties with the US and reposition itself strategically, it does not yet signal a fundamental or long-term shift in the relationship.

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However, it could serve as a valuable springboard for Pakistan to negotiate more favourable diplomatic or economic terms, especially in face of tariffs imposed by Trump administration.

Pakistan’s ambitions to modernise and expand its military capabilities may find some encouragement through this engagement, as closer military-to-military contacts with the US could facilitate access to advanced defence technology and cooperation.