Champions Trophy semi-finals scenario: Australia’s bad luck

WEB DESK: Australia face off against Afghanistan on Thursday, February 28, in a match that will largely decide the fate of Group B. A win for either team would qualify them for the semi-finals.

If Afghanistan is able to carry their momentum from Wednesday’s game against England into today’s match and triumph over the Aussies, that will leave the men in yellow in a precarious situation. Australia currently has three points after winning their first match against long-time rivals England, and gaining one point in their match against South Africa which was abandoned due to rain. Their bad luck has put their backs against the wall, as if they lose their match against Afghanistan, that will mean they will be praying for England to pull off a miracle.

South Africa, while tied with Australia on three points, lead the table off net run rate (NRR). Thus, if Australia lose against Afghanistan, it won’t be enough for England to simply best South Africa. They will need thrash them by such a margin that their NRR drops below Australia’s. Currently, South Africa’s NRR is by far the best in the group at 2.140, while Australia have a NRR of 0.475.

The large discrepancy makes it unlikely that Australia will qualify if they fall short against Afghanistan. And if they do fail to qualify, it won’t be the first time the Aussies have had their Champions Trophy qualification chances unduly ripped from their clutches. In fact, it’s become somewhat expected for them.

Also read: Champions Trophy: Hosts Pakistan finish bottom after Bangladesh match washed out

It all began in the 2013 iteration of the Champions Trophy. Defending champs Australia’s second match of the tournament, which saw them clash against New Zealand, ended in a no result as rain plagued the Birmingham pitch. Failing to gain any confidence, the Aussies would go on to lose against Sri Lanka, which would be their final outing in the tournament.

The second match of the 2017 champions trophy, between Australia and New Zealand, would also be washed out. At this point it was an unlikely coincidence, but when Australia’s second match of the tournament, against Bangladesh, also ended in a rain forced no result while the Aussies were on track for a comfortable victory, it became a cruel joke. Australia just couldn’t seem to escape the rain, and it struck again in their third group stage match against England, allowing the Aussie rivals to win via the DLS method.

While the rain no doubt hampered Australia in the past two iterations of the tournament, it may have only sped up the inevitable. However, this year’s Aussie squad looked incredible against England, as they chased an incredible innings from England, scoring 356 runs. Had they won their second match against South Africa, they would currently be topping the table, leaving South Africa in a must win situation against England, and Afghanistan a must win situation against Australia themselves.

However, the rain had other plans. If Australia lose today, they will most likely be knocked out of the tournament. Unless England pull off one hell of a miracle.

Also read: Injuries are not an excuse for bad performance: Mohammad Rizwan