Bitcoin’s old boom-and-bust rhythm may be gone for good

WEB DESK: For more than a decade, Bitcoin’s price movements have danced to a predictable beat, a four-year cycle driven by a code-written event called the “halving.” But this time, the music seems different.

Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, thinks the famous rhythm has finally broken. “It’s not officially over until we see positive returns in 2026. But I think we will,” he told CNBC. “The four-year cycle is over.”

The halving, which slices miners’ rewards in half roughly every four years, has historically triggered a textbook pattern: a post-halving surge to fresh highs, a brutal 70–80 percent crash, then a long crypto winter before the next run-up. It’s a cycle so familiar that veteran traders could almost set their watches to it.

But the April 2024 halving flipped the script. Bitcoin had already smashed through $73,000 in March, weeks before the event, powered by an unlikely force: Wall Street. The US approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in January drew billions from deep-pocketed institutional investors, essentially front-running the rally that usually follows a halving.

Read more: iPhone 16 Pro survives 2,600-foot fall from German plane

That influx of capital wasn’t the only disruptor. Past winters were often triggered by spectacular blow-ups, the ICO bubble burst in 2018, the FTX collapse in 2022. Now, with more supportive regulation, lower interest rate expectations, and even talk of a US “bitcoin strategic reserve,” the risk of catastrophic implosions is shrinking.

Why Bitcoin’s next crash may be smaller and shorter

Public companies are hoarding Bitcoin like a strategic asset, long-term holder accumulation is at record highs, and volatility has calmed compared to the wild swings of previous cycles. “With increasing market maturity, the traditional rhythm is being replaced by more macro-driven behaviour,” said Ryan Chow, co-founder of Solv Protocol.

So, are the legendary 80 percent crashes gone for good? Industry insiders say yes, or at least mostly. The worst drop so far this cycle has been about 26 percent. Future pullbacks may still sting at 30 to 50 percent, especially if macro or regulatory shocks hit, but they’re expected to be shorter and less devastating.

Bitcoin hit a new record above $123,000 on July 14, and while history suggests the biggest gains could still arrive between late 2025 and early 2026, this may be the first time the market refuses to follow its old playbook.

If the halving cycle is truly dead, Bitcoin’s future may be less about waiting for the next big crash and more about keeping pace with an entirely new rhythm.

Read next: Pakistan’s remittances rise 7.4 percent in July despite cut in bank incentives