Global unemployment rate expected to drop below 5 per cent

WEB DESK: The International Labour Organisation (ILO) forecasts a slight decrease in the global unemployment rate to 4.9 per cent in 2024, down from 5.0 per cent in 2023.

This positive trend is driven by lower-than-expected unemployment rates in China, India, and high-income countries. Despite initial concerns of a rise in joblessness, recent data suggests a more favorable outlook, with China’s resilience credited to effective management strategies.

Looking ahead, the downward trend is expected to stabilise by 2025.

Factors contributing to this trend include stronger-than-expected global economic growth, particularly in the United States, and a decline in inflation rates, providing relief to household incomes. The impact of increased interest rates has been gradual, mitigated by preemptive measures from both corporate and household sectors.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its 2024 global growth forecast to 3.2 per cent, up from 3.1 per cent, driven by improved prospects in the U.S. economy. This stabilisation of the macroeconomic environment is anticipated to translate into a relatively steady labour market outlook.

However, uncertainties persist due to potential global monetary and fiscal policy adjustments, which may have a delayed impact on the labour market. Despite signs of improvement, the ILO highlights persistent challenges, including a jobs gap estimated at 402 million people in 2024, up from 399 million in the previous year.

Director-General of the ILO, Gilbert F. Houngbo, underscores ongoing gender disparities within the labour market. Women, particularly in low-income countries, face a significantly higher jobs gap compared to men, indicating an uneven playing field.

In summary, while the global unemployment rate is expected to decline slightly in 2024, challenges remain, necessitating continued efforts to address disparities and create more inclusive labour markets.

Read next: Activision wins lawsuit against ‘Aimbot’ cheat maker