Mexican prices seen sticking to downward trend, likely eased in July

MEXICO CITY, (Reuters): Rising consumer prices in Mexico likely slowed in July, which would mark the sixth straight monthly inflation rate drop, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, reinforcing bets that the central bank’s key borrowing rate will likely remain at its record high.

The median forecast of 11 analysts surveyed was for annual inflation to ease to 4.78 per cent in July, which would be the lowest rate of rising prices since March 2021, after it rose to a record 8.7 per cent last year.

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Meanwhile, annual core inflation, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to slow to 6.67 per cent year-on-year, which would mark its lowest level since February 2022. (MXCCPI=ECI)

The Bank of Mexico, which has an inflation target of 3 per cent plus or minus one percentage point, in late June voted to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at a historic high of 11.25 per cent, suggesting it might need to keep it there for an extended time as it seeks to bring inflation down to its target.

In May, Banxico, as the central bank is known, ended a rate hiking cycle launched in 2021, which raised its benchmark rate by a total of 725 basis points.

Banxico will announce its next rates decision on Thursday.

Last month, consumer prices likely rose 0.48 per cent compared to June’s rate, while core inflation in July is forecast up by 0.41 per cent, according to the poll. (MXINFL=ECI), (MXCPIX=ECI)

Mexico’s national statistics agency INEGI will publish consumer price index data for July on Wednesday.