US presidential election: Is Donald Trump inching ahead of Kamala Harris?

WASHINGTON: As the US presidential election draws closer speculations are ripe on who will emerge as the winner on November 5. The election was initially a rematch of 2020 but it was upended in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris.

The big question now is – will America get its first woman president or a second Donald Trump term?

The swing states are breaking for Donald Trump. That is the growing consensus among forecasters Stateside. Five Thirty Eight has Trump moving to a 51 per cent chance of victory, Nate Silver gives Trump a 53 per cent chance, and The Economist has Trump at 54 per cent, according to The Telegraph.

The projection of my firm, J.L. Partners, has had Trump above a 50 per cent chance for a month. We now rate him with a 66 per cent chance of victory.

The main movement behind this is that Trump is performing better in the seven swing states. Surveys throughout this election cycle have tended to see him crossing the line in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia – but they are not enough to win an Electoral College victory. The former president will need to win one Midwest state to do so, from the crop of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. And although the latter two are better turf for Harris, the key state of Pennsylvania has seen a glut of positive Trump polling in recent days.

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National polls are less important – the race is decided state-by-state – but can still give us an indication of the result. Recent, high-quality polls have seen Trump leading the popular vote. If that happens, then he will likely sweep all seven swing states and could make inroads in Minnesota and New Mexico, too. Such an outcome still feels unlikely: he did not achieve this even in 2016 against the much less popular Hillary Clinton.

In a polarised electorate, where more than 90 per cent have made up their minds, it might seem odd that Trump’s position is improving this late in the day. Two things might be fuelling this.

First, a boom in Republican registrations in Pennsylvania and strong early voting numbers in Nevada suggest that he may be benefitting from better than expected turnout from his own supporters. Though both sides are splurging vast amounts of cash on ads – and Harris’ ad budgets exceed the Trump campaign’s – his may be landing better, particularly in emphasising the day-to-day pains of inflation versus life under Trump.

Harris has succeeded where Biden could not in making this campaign a referendum on the former president, but this also means Trump can point to what his core voters see as a better economic picture in his first term.

His visits and stunts in key states have also been eye-catching and visual, robbing attention from the opposing campaign and driving up excitement among his own supporters. Could you tell me what Harris was doing on Sunday while Trump served up McDonald’s fries in Pennsylvania? Thought not.

Second, some undecideds may be breaking for Donald Trump. These are a small number – two million across all seven swing states – but, with margins so tight, where they land will make a difference.

The fear is fading. If Kamala Harris cannot reawaken voters’ fear of Donald Trump, then he is set to win the most swing states in two weeks’ time.