A war no one would survive to mourn or celebrate

It is the subcontinent’s good fortune that an all-out war between India and Pakistan has been averted, at least so far. One can only hope that sanity prevails, and with the help of regional powers and partners, both nations choose to step back from the brink and begin a difficult but essential journey toward normalcy, without first courting devastation and loss.

It is not hard to imagine how a misstep by either nation could lead to a catastrophe so huge that few, if any, would be left to celebrate success or mourn the loss.

It will take time to fully comprehend the economic fallout in South Asia’s two largest countries following the recent horrific terrorist attack in Pahalgam, which killed 26 unsuspecting tourists, injured 17, and traumatized millions as disturbing footage circulated on social media. As expected, Prime Minister Modi pointed the finger at Pakistan, while Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif categorically denied any involvement and demanded that India provide evidence to support its allegations.

This time, the response went beyond fanning hatred and political rhetoric. The deep-rooted mistrust between the nuclear-armed neighbours came into full play when, just a day after the tragedy in Kashmir, India announced five immediate measures targeting Pakistan. The Indian government authorized its army to act as it deemed necessary, suspended the 1960 Indus Water Treaty that survived even wars earlier, closed the Wagah border, halting what little cross-border traffic remained, expelled Pakistani security staff from India, stopped visa processing and cancelled visas already been issued to Pakistani citizens, and ordered all Pakistani visitors to leave the country within two days. 

In a series of measured retaliatory steps, Pakistan threatened to scrap the 1972 Simla Accord. It announced the closure of the Wagah border, stating it would remain open until April 30. All Indian citizens, except Sikh pilgrims, were given 48 hours to leave the country. Pakistan also suspended visas issued to Indians under the SAARC programme, reduced the staff of Indian High Commission staff in Islamabad to 30, closed its airspace to all Indian aircraft, and suspended all trade with India.

The sudden escalation in hostilities rattled markets and alarmed businesses. Nervous sentiment was evident across Pakistan’s capital, currency and commodity markets, all of which came under pressure. The KSE-100 index lost 2,353.9 points over six days, from April 23 to 29, while the exchange rate remained volatile, fluctuating within a narrow band of Rs280 to 283 per dollar in the open market. Heightened regional risk also deterred overseas travellers, particularly foreign executives, potential investors and trading partners.

In a politically charged environment, with the threat of war hanging in the air, business leaders across the region publicly pledged unqualified support to their respective governments in defending national sovereignty. Privately, however, many in Pakistan expressed a strong desire for immediate de-escalation. Those consulted were critical of domestic elements fueling war hysteria, as well as of the West’s apparent indifference to a potentially explosive situation in Asia. 

Ehsan Malik, CEO of the Pakistan Business Council, was clear and direct in his response. “I don’t believe the business community fears an outright war”, he said. “Nevertheless, uncertainty does impact sentiment. Foreign visitors and buyers are likely to postpone their trips. The pharmaceutical industry is already facing supply chain disruptions, as imports of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) from India have been suspended. Hopefully, better sense will prevail, as the production of cancer and other life-saving drugs is being affected”. 

Badruddin Kaker, a leader of the Balochistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, emphasised that in times of crisis, particularly when confronted with a hostile neighbour, the nation unites to collectively push back enemies of the country. “Business is a peacetime pursuit, he said, “but when the country is confronted with danger, the private sector will stand shoulder to shoulder with the rest of the nation. We are ready to go to any length to defend Pakistan”. 

Eizaz Sheikh, former president of the Cement Association of Pakistan, dismissed the war hype and assessed the threat as medium in intensity. “Nobody wants tensions with their neighbour, it makes life miserable on both sides, whether it’s a household, village, city or a country”, he remarked.

“While tensions with India may serve the interest of some global powers, they do not benefit people of either nation”. Commenting on the muted international response, he added. “The world has grown accustomed to the bitter-sweet nature of Indo-Pak relations, and some even benefit when trade between the two neighbours comes to a halt”.

Many businessmen chose to remain silent, wary of sparking controversy. “This is not the time to focus on self-interest”, noted one businessman, speaking privately with a strong sense of nationalism. “Everyone must rise above narrow concerns and stand behind the government and security apparatus it leads.”