November inflation declines to 4.9 per cent, within SBP’s target range

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s inflation eased in November, hitting 4.9 per cent year-on-year, marking the slowest price growth since April 2018. This figure, released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday, brings inflation well within the central bank’s target range of 5-7 per cent.

Compared to 7.2 per cent inflation in October and a staggering 29.2 per cent in November 2023, this decline signals a significant improvement in price stability. However, the November reading was slightly above market expectations of 4.7 per cent.

This brings the average inflation for the first five months of the fiscal year 2025 (5MFY25) to 7.94 per cent, down from a much higher 28.62 per cent during the same period last year (5MFY24).

On a month-to-month basis, prices rose by 0.5 per cent in November, slowing from a 1.23 per cent increase in October and well below the 2.7 per cent rise in November 2023.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 8.9 per cent year-on-year in November, up slightly from 8.6 per cent in October, but significantly lower than the 18.6 per cent rise recorded in November 2023.

Month-on-month, core inflation saw a 1.2 per cent increase, compared to 0.6 per cent in the previous month and 0.9 per cent in November last year.

With inflation now sitting at 4.86 per cent and the policy rate holding at 15 per cent, Pakistan’s real interest rate stands at 10.14 per cent, providing the central bank some breathing room as it navigates the economic challenges ahead.

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