Pakistan’s GDP could drop by over 21% due to climate change by 2070: ADB

ISLAMABAD: A high-emissions climate change scenario could make Pakistan lose 21.1 per cent of its GDP by 2070, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The overall impact for the Asia-Pacific region is likely to be severe with a potential GDP decline of 16.9 per cent.

The report highlights that most countries in the region might witness losses of more than 20 per cent.

Among the hardest hit-nations are Bangladesh (–30.5 per cent), Vietnam (–30.2 per cent), Indonesia (–26.8 per cent) and India (–24.7 per cent). Other affected areas include Southeast Asia (–22 per cent), Pakistan (–21.1 per cent), Pacific (–18.6 per cent).

This data reveals that these economic impacts worsen over time with bigger losses estimated from 2050 to 2070 compared to periods like 2030 to 2050. These projections align with the upper limits of econometric estimates, surpassing previous models.

Under the worst-case scenario, it is expected that the region may face up to 26.7 per cent loss in GDP with Bangladesh being the most affected, facing a staggering 68.6 per cent decline. In a more moderate scenario with less severe shocks the loss would still be substantial at 11.4 per cent.

Importantly, the report cautions that these figures might underestimate the full scale of damage as certain effects such as impacts on human health, ecosystem services and biodiversity were not fully considered. A more comprehensive assessment could reveal even higher losses.

The report also assesses the impact of sea-level rise and storm surges. Under the high-emissions scenario, the Asia-Pacific region could experience a 6.3 per cent loss in GDP by 2070 compared to a “no climate change” scenario.

Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, the Pacific and higher-income Southeast Asia are expected to bear the brunt with GDP losses ranging from 13.3 per cent to 16.1 per cent.

Read next: Weekly inflation rises as prices of 12 key items increase