Ahmed Hassan Al Arbi on AI wars, missile shields and the new battle for the Middle East

As conflict stretches from South Asia to the Gulf, new strategic alignments are reshaping the regional order. In this wide-ranging interview with Hum English Digital, geopolitical analyst Ahmad Hassan Al Arbi examines India’s growing partnership with Israel, the fragility of Western-led security frameworks in the Gulf, the contest over trade corridors, Pakistan’s expanding diplomatic role, and the rise of AI-driven information warfare.

He argues that the region is entering a new era defined by multipolarity, strategic uncertainty and what he describes as a growing preference for regime survival over long-term regional stability.

India-Israel Axis: A New Strategic Rear?

Following Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel in February 2026, growing attention has been placed on the deepening defence and technological partnership between New Delhi and Tel Aviv. Al Arbi argues that this relationship has moved far beyond a traditional buyer-seller arrangement.

According to him, Israel provides advanced research and development capabilities, while India offers industrial scale and manpower creating what he describes as a new strategic model.

However, he warns that the partnership carries significant political risks. India’s defence manufacturing role could expose it to accusations of indirectly facilitating Israeli military operations in the Middle East, particularly at a time when Gulf economies remain crucial to India’s economic interests.

Al Arbi further contends that domestic political instability in India, coupled with Israel’s own internal challenges, may limit the long-term sustainability of this partnership.

While AI surveillance systems and advanced defence technologies may strengthen state control in the short term, he questions whether such tools can effectively suppress resistance movements over time.

The Gulf’s Security Dilemma in the Missile Shield Era

After Iran’s missile strikes in March 2026 tested the US-backed regional missile defence architecture, questions emerged over whether Gulf states are sacrificing strategic independence in exchange for security guarantees.

Al Arbi argues that the Middle East is witnessing the collapse of a century-old security framework largely shaped by external powers following the First World War.

He believes many regional states are increasingly questioning whether Western security guarantees remain reliable amid repeated regional escalations.

According to him, Gulf countries are now exploring alternatives that better reflect their own regional priorities and security needs.

He suggests that while individual states may pursue different paths, the broader trend points towards the emergence of a more indigenous collective security structure in the Middle East.

IMEC vs CPEC: The New Corridor Competition

With instability in the Strait of Hormuz driving global energy concerns, infrastructure projects have become central to geopolitical competition.

Al Arbi argues that the proposed India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) currently remains more of a geopolitical vision than a viable economic reality. He describes the initiative as strategically ambitious but operationally fragile, warning that political instability across the region could easily disrupt its implementation.

In contrast, he points to already established connectivity projects such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as more deeply rooted in existing economic structures.

For Al Arbi, economic projects that lack credible security foundations are unlikely to succeed in an increasingly volatile global environment.

Pakistan’s Expanding Role as a Regional Mediator

Pakistan’s role in facilitating the April 2026 Islamabad talks aimed at easing tensions between the United States and Iran has elevated its diplomatic profile.

Al Arbi rejects conventional descriptions of Pakistan as merely a middle power, arguing that its strategic leverage places it in a more unique category. He points to Pakistan’s relationships with China, the United States, Saudi Arabia and Iran as evidence of its diplomatic flexibility.

According to him, Pakistan’s ability to maintain relationships across competing blocs has enabled Islamabad to position itself as a credible mediator in one of the world’s most dangerous geopolitical confrontations. He argues that this balancing act reflects a longstanding tradition within Pakistan’s foreign policy establishment.

AI, Deepfakes and the Battle for Truth

During the 2026 conflicts, AI deepfakes were deployed on a massive scale to manufacture panic and shape opinion. Al Arbi places this development in historical perspective: information warfare has existed for millennia, with tools evolving from theatre and print to artificial intelligence.

While acknowledging the serious risks to truth and public narratives, he remains measured. Governments worldwide, including the US and China, are actively developing regulatory frameworks and countermeasures. He believes that with proper governance, AI can ultimately serve humanity rather than become an existential threat.

A Region Entering a New Strategic Age

Al Arbi’s assessment presents a picture of a region undergoing profound transformation. From military partnerships and economic corridors to diplomacy and digital warfare, traditional alliances are being tested while new power structures emerge.

Whether these shifts produce greater stability or deepen regional fragmentation remains one of the defining geopolitical questions of the decade.