Iran’s nuclear timeline unchanged despite war, US intel says

US intelligence officials believe Iran’s nuclear capabilities have not been significantly set back by the ongoing conflict, according to sources familiar with the latest assessments, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

Despite months of fighting, analysts say the estimated timeline for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon remains roughly the same as last year, around nine months to one year if Tehran chose to pursue it.

The current war, initiated by US President Donald Trump in part to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, has largely targeted conventional military infrastructure rather than nuclear facilities. While Israel has carried out strikes on some nuclear-related sites, US operations have focused on weakening Iran’s broader military and defense capabilities.

Experts suggest that meaningfully delaying Iran’s nuclear progress would likely require eliminating its stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU), much of which remains unaccounted for. The International Atomic Energy Agency estimates Iran possesses enough material for up to ten nuclear weapons if further enriched.

Although earlier strikes on key facilities like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan pushed back Iran’s nuclear timeline, recent military actions appear to have had limited additional impact. Some analysts believe this is because remaining nuclear materials are stored in deeply buried locations that are difficult to target.

Tensions remain high despite an April ceasefire, with Iran disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a global energy crunch.

Meanwhile, US officials continue to emphasize that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon remains a central objective, even as discussions around more aggressive options, such as retrieving nuclear materials, are reportedly underway.

Adding further uncertainty are Israeli operations targeting Iranian nuclear scientists, which experts say could hinder Iran’s technical capabilities, even if the core knowledge base remains intact.

Iran has consistently denied pursuing nuclear weapons, maintaining that its program is for peaceful purposes.