Turkey reeling from worst drought in five decades

ISTANBUL: Turkey is grappling with its worst drought in more than 50 years, with rainfall dropping 27 per cent compared to the last three decades and even steeper declines in some regions, according to official data published this week.

The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) said average precipitation between October 1, 2024, and August 31, 2025, stood at 401.1 millimetres (15.8 inches), compared with 548.5 mm in 1991–2020.

“Over 11 months, rainfall in Turkey has dropped to its lowest level in the past 52 years,” the MGM said, noting a more than 60 per cent reduction in southeastern Anatolia, a typically arid region bordering Syria. Some areas saw less than 250 mm of rain compared to averages of over 1,000 mm in previous decades.

Turkey’s Mediterranean regions also faced acute shortages, with Marmara and the Aegean coast experiencing their driest spell in 18 years. Water scarcity combined with record-breaking heat made for a punishing summer.

July was the hottest month in 55 years, with average temperatures nearly 2°C higher than the 1991–2020 baseline. Silopi in the southeast hit 50.5°C at the end of the month, while Adana recorded 47.5°C in early August — its hottest day in 95 years.

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In western Turkey, Cesme’s reservoir lake fell to just three per cent of capacity, exposing an old road long submerged underwater and sparking alarm nationwide. The parched conditions also fuelled multiple forest fires in Hatay and western provinces, prompting mosques across the country to hold prayers for rain.

The crisis has raised concerns over agriculture. Turkey is among the world’s top producers of apricots, figs, apples and hazelnuts, which account for 70 per cent of global supply. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last month estimated farm losses at 23 billion lira (\$557 million), pledging state aid for the 420,000 uninsured farmers whose incomes have collapsed.

Experts warn the risks are only set to intensify. A recent NGO study found that 88 per cent of Turkey faces the threat of desertification, while scientists predict rainfall could decline by one-third by the end of the century, with temperatures rising by 5–6°C compared to 1961–1990 averages.

Global warning

The crisis comes as new research warns that similar “Day Zero” drought events — where cities run out of drinking water — could emerge much sooner than expected worldwide.

A peer-reviewed study published Tuesday in Nature Communications said that hotspots of acute water scarcity could appear by the 2020s and 2030s in the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of North America.

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Scientists used climate models to assess when water demand will exceed supply from rainfall, rivers and reservoirs. The findings suggest 35 per cent of drought-prone regions could face Day Zero conditions within the next 15 years, threatening nearly 750 million people globally by the end of the century if emissions remain high.

Urban populations in the Mediterranean are especially vulnerable, with nearly 200 million city dwellers at risk, while rural communities in Asia and Africa could face disproportionate impacts.

“Even if warming is limited to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, hundreds of millions of people will still face unprecedented water shortages,” said Vecchia Ravinandrasana of Pusan National University in South Korea, the study’s lead author.

Cape Town narrowly avoided a Day Zero episode in 2018 when reservoirs drained to near empty, while Chennai in India faced a similar crisis a year later. The report warns such events are “not just a future concern in a warming world, but also a near-term reality” requiring urgent planning.