Vote counting under way in key Indian state elections

Ballot counting began on Monday across four major state elections in India, with early projections suggesting gains for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party in at least two contests.

Votes are being tallied in the eastern states of Assam and West Bengal, the southern states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, as well as the union territory of Puducherry. The process began at 8am local time.

According to exit polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to secure victories in two of these regions, potentially strengthening Modi’s political standing midway through his third term in office.

In West Bengal, the BJP has mounted a strong challenge but has never formed a government. The party is contesting fiercely against Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who has governed the state for three consecutive terms. Poll projections indicating a possible defeat for Banerjee could deal a setback to opposition forces ahead of the 2029 general elections, analysts say.

In Assam, which shares a border with Bangladesh, the BJP-led alliance is widely expected to retain power, extending its rule to a third consecutive term.

Meanwhile, in Tamil Nadu, a key centre for India’s electronics and automobile industries, surveys suggest the incumbent Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance is on course for re-election.

Kerala is forecast to see a closely contested outcome, with exit polls pointing to a potential defeat for the ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist) and its allies, who may be unseated by an opposition bloc led by the Indian National Congress.

While politically significant at the state level, analysts do not expect the results to have a major impact on policymaking or the balance of power at the federal level.