The dynamics of India-Pakistan relations: Implications for the SCO and beyond

As Pakistan gears up to host the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit next month, all eyes are on one crucial figure: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The invitations are out, and the anticipation is palpable. Yet, the question on everyone’s mind is whether Modi will attend- a decision that could significantly impact the summit.

On August 29, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the gathering of world leaders in Islamabad on October 15-16. This marks the first major meeting of global leaders in Pakistan since 2012. However, India has not yet confirmed Modi’s participation, and skepticism lingers amid the backdrop of ongoing tensions between the two neighbors.

The implications extend far beyond the India-Pakistan relationship. The rivalry has already strained regional organizations like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), which hasn’t convened in a decade. Could the same tensions disrupt the SCO, a coalition led by global powers like China and Russia, who have their own aspirations on the world stage?

Opinions vary among analysts. Taimur Khan from the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad warns that the past troubles of SAARC could reemerge within the SCO. However, he points out that the SCO is built on a more solid foundation, backed by influential nations, which might offer a different dynamic.

Internally, Pakistan faces its own challenges. The country is grappling with political division and diplomatic isolation, making it difficult to effectively counter India’s assertiveness. Recently, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar indicated that the era of ongoing engagement has ended, suggesting that any dialogue moving forward will be event-based rather than continuous. This marks a stark shift from the past, when leaders like Atal Bihari Vajpayee were willing to discuss contentious issues like Kashmir.

In response to Jaishankar’s comments, Pakistan’s Foreign Office vehemently refuted his remarks, calling them “misleading and dangerously delusional.” They reiterated that Kashmir is a recognized international issue that needs resolution according to UN resolutions and the will of the Kashmiri people. This back-and-forth only deepens the mistrust between the two nations.

Compounding these tensions, India is also facing challenges with its neighbors, including strained relations with China and the loss of a pro-India government in Bangladesh. Recently, Muhammad Yunus remarked that Bangladesh has achieved its “second liberation,” which further isolates India in the region. At the same time, India is strengthening ties with Gulf countries, raising questions about its focus on South Asia.

Despite these challenges, Pakistan has expressed a willingness to explore trade cooperation with India, a stark contrast to the current political climate. This desire for collaboration underscores the complexities of regional dynamics. While India is positioning itself as a rising power on the global stage, the potential for meaningful dialogue with Pakistan appears increasingly elusive.

As the SCO summit approaches, Modi’s absence would not just be a diplomatic snub; it would serve as a potent symbol of the growing divide between India and Pakistan. If he chooses not to attend, it could send a clear message to both Islamabad and the world about the difficulty of forging constructive regional cooperation.

In a world facing numerous challenges, the key question remains: can India and Pakistan find common ground? The answer lies not only in their bilateral relations but also in how they navigate their roles within broader international frameworks like the SCO. History has shown that the potential for cooperation exists, but it requires genuine willingness to engage, something that seems increasingly hard to come by in today’s charged atmosphere.

Ultimately, the SCO summit represents more than just a gathering of leaders; it is a critical juncture for South Asia. The dynamics at play could either pave the way for a renewed focus on regional stability and cooperation or reinforce the status quo of hostility and division. As global powers like China and Russia look to extend their influence, the choices made in Islamabad could have far-reaching implications, not just for India and Pakistan, but for the entire region.

In this context, the potential for dialogue becomes even more crucial. As both nations navigate their domestic and international challenges, embracing opportunities for cooperation, however small, may hold the key to breaking the cycle of conflict. The SCO could serve as a platform for dialogue, fostering a spirit of collaboration that has been sorely lacking in recent years. The world is watching closely; it remains to be seen whether the leaders will seize this moment or let it slip away.