Pakistan could make the WTC finals, here’s how

LAHORE: The Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) revealed the details for the upcoming West Indies tour of Pakistan on Monday, which will see the two teams face off in a two match test series. It will be the final series in the ICC World Test Championship (WTC), begging the question, can Pakistan still make it to the finals?

The West Indies tour of Pakistan, which is the first in 19 years, will kick off on January 17. The series will be the final two tests for the men in green in the WTC. Currently, they are ranked seventh, having only won four of their ten matches, securing 33.33 percent of the points that were up for grabs. Due to their less than stellar performances in the tournament so far, and the fact that only two series remain, against South Africa and West Indies, the Shaheens have the slimmest of chances to qualify for the finals.

But nonetheless, let’s take a look at how they can.

THE INCREDIBLY COMPLICATED BREAKDOWN

The finals will see the top two teams out of the nine competing, including South Africa, Australia, India, New Zealand, Sri Lanka, England, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and West Indies. Teams are awarded 12 points for a win, six for a tie, and four points for a draw. But the rankings aren’t determined based on points themselves, but rather the percentage of points won out of all the points a team could possible earn. This is the method used due to the unequal amount of games played by each team.

Pakistan currently stand at seventh in the table. They have played a total of ten matches so far, four of which they have won, two each against England and Sri Lanka. This earned the team 48 points, however, they lost eight due to slow over rates. With 40 points won out of a possible 120, Pakistan currently have a score of 33.33 per cent.

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Pakistan have four games left, two against South Africa, the first of which kicks off on December 26, and two against West Indies, the first of which is set for January 17. Pakistan will likely need to win all four games to have a chance at qualifying. With the additional 48 points, Pakistan would sit at 88 points won out of a possible 168. This would give them a point percentage of 52.38 per cent.

In the current standings, that would put Pakistan at fourth.

The top three teams are currently, South Africa, Australia, and India.

South Africa currently have 76 points out of a possible 120, after winning six and drawing one out of their 10 matches. This gives them a point percentage of 63.33 per cent. If they lose both of their two final games against Pakistan, they will have a final point percentage of 53.78 per cent. This would still place them ahead of Pakistan.

The Aussies currently have 106 points out a possible 180, with nine matches won and two drawn, along with 10 points deducted for slow over rates. This gives them a point percentage of 58.89 per cent. Australia has four matches remaining, the final two of their five match series against India, and two against Sri Lanka. If the Aussies lose all four matches, they will have a point percentage of 46.49 per cent. However, two of their matches are against India, who currently have a win percentage of 55.88 per cent, and will have a percentage of 60.53 if they win those remaining two tests.

Thus, in order for Pakistan to sneak into that second place slot, they will need some draws and some point deductions. If Australia draw both matches against India and lose both against Sri Lanka, they will sit at 50 per cent. This would knock them out of the top three, if Pakistan win both their games against South Africa.

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However, with two draws, India will find themselves in second place, with a point percentage of 53.51 per cent. If India out right lose either of the two matches and draw the other, then Australia will take second place, with a percentage of 53.51 per cent.

If Australia win any of their four matches and draw another, as long as they don’t lose to India, they will make it into the top two. But, if they lose both matches against Sri Lanka, that will put the Lions in contention for the finals. In order to keep Sri Lanka out, the Aussies will need to win at least one of their two tests against them.

In summary, Pakistan will need a miracle. First, they will need to win both their matches. Then, they will need either South Africa (if Australia or India outqualify Pakistan), India (if they draw both their matches, or win at least one), or Australia (if they at least win one of their matches against Sri Lanka and draw both against India) to suffer point deductions from slow over rates.

The simplest scenario to the finals is for Australia to win both matches against India, or win one and draw the other, as well as keeping Sri Lanka from winning both of their matches. This would put the Aussies in first, and South Africa in second. With some lucky slow over rate point deductions, Pakistan might be able to sneak past the Proteas. But it is undoubtably, the longest of shots.

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