Harris narrowly edges high over Trump in fresh poll survey

WASHINGTON (Reuters): Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris led Republican Donald Trump by a marginal three percentage points – 46 per cent to 43 per cent – as the two remain locked in a close race to win the November 5 US presidential election, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.

The four-day poll completed on Monday showed Trump, who had trailed Harris by six points in a September 20-23 Reuters/Ipsos poll, was the preferred candidate for a range of economic issues and that some voters might be swayed by his claims that immigrants in the country illegally are prone to crime, assertions that have been largely discredited by academics and think tanks.

The poll had a margin of error of about 3 percentage points.

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Respondents rated the economy as the top issue facing the country, and some 44 per cent said Trump had the better approach on addressing the “cost of living,” compared to 38 per cent who picked Harris.

Among a range of economic issues, the next president should address, some 70 per cent of respondents said the cost of living would be the most important, with only tiny shares picking the job market, taxes or “leaving me better off financially.” Trump had more support than Harris in each of those areas as well, although voters by a margin of 42 per cent to 35 per cent thought Harris was the better candidate to address the gap between wealthy and average Americans.

Trump appeared buoyed by widespread concerns over immigration, currently at its highest level in America in over a century. Some 53 per cent of voters in the poll said they agreed with a statement that “immigrants who are in the country illegally are a danger to public safety,” compared to 41 per cent who disagreed. Voters had been more closely divided on the question in a May Reuters/Ipsos poll, when 45 per cent agreed and 46 per cent disagreed.

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At campaign rallies all year, Trump has called attention to crimes committed by immigrants in the country illegally. While there is little data about the immigration status of criminals, studies have generally found that immigrants are not more likely than native-born Americans to engage in criminality.

Harris has led Trump in each of the six Reuters/Ipsos polls on their matchup since she entered the race in late July. The latest poll showed Harris up two percentage points – 47 per cent to 45 per cent – among the voters who appeared most likely to cast ballots in November. About two-thirds of eligible voters turned out in the 2020 presidential election, according to an estimate by the Pew Research Center.

Voters trusted the mental acuity of Harris above that of Trump in the latest poll, with 55% agreeing with a statement that she was “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 46 per cent who said the same of Trump.

While national surveys including Reuters/Ipsos polls give important signals on the views of the electorate, the state-by-state results of the Electoral College determine the winner, with seven battleground states likely to be decisive. Polls have shown Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in those battleground states, with many results within the margins of error.

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Harris entered the race after Democratic President Joe Biden ended his reelection effort following a poor debate performance against Trump in June. Trump at the time was widely seen as the front-runner, partly based on his perceived strength on the economy after several years of high inflation under the Biden administration.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 1,272 US adults online, nationwide, including 1,076 registered voters. Among these, 969 were considered the most likely to turn out on Election Day.