Trump’s tariff plans puts US farm exports at risk

BEIJING: Chinese imports of US farm goods, which have declined sharply since the Washington-Beijing trade war during President Donald Trump’s first term, are expected to drop further as Beijing prepares retaliatory measures against fresh US tariffs.

Trump has threatened an additional 10 per cent duty on Chinese imports which are set to take effect on Tuesday, resulting in a cumulative 20 per cent tariff on products shipped from the world’s second largest economy.

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State media Global Times on Monday said Beijing’s countermeasures will likely include both tariffs and non-tariff measures, with US agriculture and food products most likely to be hit.

Following are key details on China’s import of US agricultural commodities and how the trade has evolved:

‘IRREPLACEABLE’ MARKET

China imported $29.25 billion worth of US agricultural products in 2024, a 14 per cent decline from the previous year, extending a 20 per cent drop in 2023.

US exports to China have declined since 2018 after Beijing slapped tariffs of up to 25 per cent on soybeans, beef, pork, wheat, corn and sorghum in retaliation for duties on Chinese goods imposed by Trump.

Since 2018, Beijing has also diversified its agricultural imports and boosted domestic production in pursuit of greater food security.

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Nonetheless, China remains the largest export market for American farmers. US farm leaders and traders have described China as “irreplaceable” even as they look for other markets to offset declining Chinese demand.

SOYBEANS

About half of US soybeans, the country’s largest agricultural export to China, were shipped to the Asian nation in 2024, totalling $12.8 billion in trade, according to the US Census Bureau.

However, China has increasingly relied on cheaper and abundant Brazilian soybeans to reduce its dependence on US supplies. This has resulted in the US market share in China dropping to 21 per cent in 2024 from 40 per cent in 2016, according to Chinese customs data.

CORN

The US was China’s dominant corn supplier for decades until Beijing approved Brazilian purchases in 2022.

China’s imports of US corn plummeted to $561 million in 2024 from $2.6 billion in 2023 as domestic production increased, according to Chinese customs data.

While China’s corn demand has grown over the past decade to support its massive livestock industry, Brazil has rapidly surpassed the US as China’s leading supplier.

MEAT AND OFFAL

China is a key market for US exports of chicken legs, pork ears and offal – products for which there is little demand in the United States.

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China bought $2.54 billion of meat and offal from the US in 2024, down from $4.11 billion in 2021.

COTTON

China accounts for about a quarter of US cotton shipments in value. Shipments of US cotton into the world’s second largest economy stood at $1.49 billion in 2024, down from $1.57 billion in 2023, according to US Census Bureau data, as economic headwinds squeezed demand for textiles and garments.

SORGHUM

China’s imports of US sorghum have risen slightly but the country is trying to reduce its dependence on the American feed grain which is mostly used as a corn substitute.

China imported $1.73 billion worth of sorghum from the US in 2024, up from $1.52 billion in 2014.

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US sorghum exports to China are facing stiff competition from Australia and Argentina as well as cheaper Brazilian corn.

WHEAT

China imported nearly $600 million worth of US wheat in 2024, the highest in three years. But China has reduced overall wheat imports in recent months amid ample local supplies which is likely to impact US shipments.