Who will succeed Justine Trudeau as Liberal Party leader?

OTTAWA: Canada’s ruling Liberal Party is choosing a new leader to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who said in January he was stepping down after growing dissatisfaction over his performance. The result is due to be announced on March 9.

WHY DOES THERE NEED TO BE A RACE?

Unlike in Australia and Britain, where prime ministers are chosen by legislators and can be removed very quickly, the heads of political parties in Canada are chosen by members in special contests. Trudeau’s resignation automatically triggered a leadership race. The new head of the Liberal Party will become the new prime minister.

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WHO ARE THE MAIN CONTENDERS?

Polls suggest ex-central bank governor Mark Carney has a commanding lead over former finance minister Chrystia Freeland, whose resignation last December triggered the crisis that led to Trudeau stepping down. Former cabinet minister Karina Gould is also running but her chances are minimal.

WHO CAN VOTE?

People who have registered as Liberals can vote. There is no fee to become a party member. Canadians and permanent residents are eligible for membership. The party said on January 30 that around 400,000 people had signed up to vote. Canada has a population of around 41 million.

HOW WILL THE RESULT BE CALCULATED?

The contest will be a ranked ballot of voters in each of the 343 parliamentary constituencies, also known as ridings. Each riding is allocated 100 points. These are distributed based on the ratio of votes won by a contestant in each riding.

The system means that a candidate must have broad backing across the country, rather than just amassing the largest number of supporters.

Voters in each riding rank the candidates in order of preference. So if Candidate A won 60 per cent of the votes in a riding and Candidate B won 40 per cent, they would earn 60 and 40 points respectively. The process is repeated in all 343 ridings and then the national count takes place.

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If no contestant gets more than 50 per cent of the overall points on the first count, the leadership contestant who received the least points is eliminated.

This is where the ranked ballots play a key role. The Liberal Party will redistribute the ballots of the eliminated contestant to the other contenders based on who voters in each riding chose as their second option. This process continues until someone takes more than 50 per cent of the points.

HOW WILL THE RESULT BE ANNOUNCED?

The Liberals say they will unveil the result at a gathering in Ottawa on March 9 with the first round of voting being announced at about 6:30 PM ET (2230 GMT).

WHEN WILL A NATIONAL ELECTION BE HELD?

Under Canada’s fixed election law the next national vote must be held by October 20 but could take place much sooner. The new prime minister could call an election any time after March 9. An election could also be triggered in late March, when a vote of no confidence in the government is expected in Parliament. If all the opposition parties vote against the Liberals, the government will fall.

Polls show that the Liberals are virtually tied with the official opposition Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre. The Conservatives had a double-digit lead for more than a year but that advantage vanished after Trudeau announced he was stepping down and US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on all imports from Canada.

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE THREE CANDIDATES

MARK CARNEY: In a statement to the UK’s Financial Times newspaper, Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England said that he is “considering” entering the race to replace Trudeau.

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The 59-year-old economist has been influential in both Canada and England since 2007 and has served as an adviser to both Justin Trudeau and Boris Johnson.

As the central bank’s governor, he said, “But let me start by being clear. We will never, ever be part of the United States in any way, shape or form. We have to recognize that the Donald Trump of today is different than the Donald Trump of several years ago. Then his objective was to take more of our market. Now he wants to take our country.”

CHRYSTIA FREELAND: Former Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, resigned in December 2024 after outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau asked her to take a lesser cabinet position.

Freeland, 56, has been a prominent figure in Trudeau’s Liberal government since he took office in 2015, and led the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement during the Donald Trump’s first presidency.

Freeland was Canada’s first female finance minister and had once been seen as a likely successor to lead the Liberal party.

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Former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said, “Trump is posing the gravest challenge our country has faced since the Second World War. He’s threatening us with economic warfare. That’s not new. Last time he threatened to rip up NAFTA and he imposed tariffs on our steel and aluminum. I fought back and I won. This time, Trump’s threats are even worse. He wants to make us the 51st state. Trump is unleashed and empowered. As your prime minister. I will be, too.”

KARINA GOULD: Karina Gould, a former cabinet minister, is the youngest participant in the political race at 37. She first stepped into the spotlight as the Minister for Democratic Institutions in 2017.

Her profile grew significantly in July 2023 when she became the Government House Leader. This role involved managing the government’s agenda in the House of Commons, which gave her a higher visibility in the media.

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The former house leader said, “He (Trump) did a deal with Putin for critical minerals in Ukraine. Who else has critical minerals? Canada. And so we need to understand what the U.S. is trying to do here. But we also need to make sure that we are standing up for our sovereignty and for our economy.”