UAE announces to quit OPEC in major blow to oil producers’ cartel

DUBAI: The United Arab Emirates has announced it will withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), marking a significant rupture in the global oil producers’ alliance amid escalating regional tensions and disruption in Middle East energy routes.

The decision, which will take effect on May 1, deals a blow to the cartel and its de facto leader Saudi Arabia, and comes at a time when global energy markets are already under strain from conflict-related disruptions and volatility in oil prices.

The UAE energy ministry said the move followed a comprehensive review of its production policy and long-term strategy, adding that leaving OPEC would provide Abu Dhabi with greater flexibility to respond to market conditions.

The ministry expressed appreciation for OPEC and its broader OPEC+ alliance, saying it wished the group success despite the departure.

The UAE, one of the world’s largest oil exporters and a key regional business hub, joined OPEC in 1967 through the Emirate of Abu Dhabi and remained a member after the formation of the UAE in 1971. It has played a significant role in shaping production decisions within the group.

The withdrawal represents a rare fracture in an organisation that has historically sought to present a unified front despite internal divisions over production quotas, pricing strategy and geopolitical tensions.

The move comes as Gulf oil producers face mounting challenges in exporting crude through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments pass. The waterway has been affected by Iranian threats and attacks on vessels amid wider regional conflict.

Brent crude prices have surged in recent weeks, reaching as high as $119.50 per barrel since the outbreak of war involving Iran. Prices rose 3.4 per cent to $111.67 on Tuesday, reflecting heightened market uncertainty.

Analysts said the UAE’s exit could weaken OPEC’s influence over global oil markets, particularly given its status as one of the few members with significant spare production capacity alongside Saudi Arabia.

“The UAE withdrawal marks a significant shift for OPEC,” said Jorge León, an analyst at Rystad. “While near-term effects may be muted, the longer-term implication is a structurally weaker OPEC.”

León warned that the move could increase volatility in global energy markets and raise questions about Saudi Arabia’s role as the group’s stabilising force.

The decision also comes amid strained regional dynamics. The UAE has in recent weeks criticised the broader Arab and Gulf response to Iranian attacks during the ongoing Middle East conflict, with senior officials calling for stronger collective security coordination.

Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, said earlier this week that Gulf Cooperation Council responses to regional threats had been “historically weak” in military and political terms.

The United States has also previously criticised OPEC policies over oil pricing, with former US President Donald Trump accusing the group of keeping prices artificially high.

The UAE’s exit marks one of the most significant changes in OPEC’s membership in decades and could reshape the balance of influence within global energy markets at a time of heightened geopolitical instability.