Pahalgam attack — implications on Pak-Afghan relations

Tensions have escalated between India and Pakistan following the Pahalgam attack in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir just three days after Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister/Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar held talks with Afghan leaders in Kabul to repair strained relations.

Pakistan was in the process of implementing certain decisions including a roadmap for Islamabad-Kabul’s future political engagement as well as the signing of a revised transit trade agreement and a Preferential Trade Agreement.

The Pahalgam attack has overshadowed the outcome of Dar’s visit, which was his first to Kabul and a Pakistani Foreign Minister visit to the neighbouring country since October 2021.

This situation has exacerbated Pakistan’s foreign policy and security challenges and the imperative of strengthening relations and engagement with other neighbours – Afghanistan, Iran and China has become more important than ever.

It has been encouraging that after a major dip in relations with Afghanistan during the past two years, Ishaq Dar visited Kabul on 19 April 2025 to thaw the relations.

While the visit has been instrumental in helping overcome deep negativity in bilateral relations and generating positive momentum by the conclusion of agreements and understanding for promoting cooperation in various fields, there remain many differences and grievances that continue to affect smooth progress and growth in Pakistan-Afghanistan interaction.

To foil the usual Indian opportunism to divide a wedge between Pakistan and Afghanistan, it is important for our authorities to follow up on the implementation of decisions reached in the recent visit of Ishaq Dar to Afghanistan. Institutional engagement is important to evolve uninterrupted discussions on the way forward in addressing the TTP challenge and its related dynamics.

In addition, it is important for Pakistan to take effective measures to enhance the facilitation of the movement of people and Afghan trade and transit through Pakistan by improving the working of Torkham, Chaman and other border crossings.

One key aspect to keep under consideration is that stopping all trade and movements and border crossings with India as part of the retaliatory measures would also affect the transit of Afghan exports through the Wagah border. It would be advisable that while Pakistan imposes restrictions on bilateral trade and economic exchanges against India, an exemption should be considered for Afghan exports going to India through Pakistan’s land border. Such a gesture is likely to generate Pakistan’s goodwill in Afghanistan at this critical moment in our regional diplomacy.

Additionally, focusing on Pakistan’s engagement with Iran and China is also of crucial importance. Both these countries are not only Pakistan’s immediate neighbours but also direct neighbours of Afghanistan themselves and are crucial regional actors in the efforts for peace, stability and economic progress and development of Afghanistan and its connectivity to Central and West Asia. In this regard, Pakistan needs to take initiatives to revive the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran and the Pakistan-Afghanistan-China trilateral consultation mechanisms for cooperation in political, security, economic and people-to-people interaction.

In a fast-changing global political environment, such efforts and initiatives for promoting harmony and engagement with these crucial neighbouring countries of Pakistan should be a central element of our regional diplomacy. These will not only help Pakistan in effectively countering India’s bullying but also enhance prospects for strengthening our relations with other neighbours and promoting regional connectivity and prosperity.

Pakistani officials are satisfied with the outcome of the visit and there is a need to keep the momentum going, especially the Pahalgam attack which has badly affected the already tense relationship between Pakistan and India.

Defence Minister Khawaja Asif’s reference to Afghanistan in a joint presser with Ishaq Dar and other ministers on April 24 was thought to be unnecessary as a public blame game at this stage could have a negative impact on whatever has been achieved during the Pakistani delegation’s Kabul visit.

What has Pakistan offered during the DPM/FM visit?

People familiar with Ishaq Dar’s visit to Kabul say that Pakistan has agreed to establish an Additional Secretary level Consultation Mechanism between two Foreign Ministries.

Both sides expressed readiness to sign a Framework Agreement for the feasibility study on Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (UAP) Railway (Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kharlachi) Railway Line Project, which will enhance regional connectivity and trade opportunities. The construction of the railway is expected to take at least 5 years.

Pakistan and Afghanistan had also agreed to reactivate the ‘Immediate Neighbours’ Format in Afghanistan. They also agreed to have an early meeting of the Trilateral Dialogue Mechanism between Afghanistan, China and Pakistan.

Both agreed to sign the Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) in two weeks on 4 items and to remove 10% processing fee on more than 50% (867) items included in Afghan Transit Trade.

Both sides agreed to conclude the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) latest till June 2025. The 1965 APTTA, revised in 2010, expired in 2021.

The Pakistan side also agreed on a reduction in CESS to 1% (from 2) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on exports to Afghanistan via KP.

Track and Trace system for Afghan Transit goods to be made operational by the end of the financial year i.e. 30 June 2025.

Both agreed to give the option of an Insurance Guarantee by an A++ company for Afghan Transit Goods.

Cross-stuffing facility of up to 750 containers per month, based on computerized selection, on trial basis, to be allowed on Afghan Transit Trade.

Reducing scanning and examination percentage of Afghan Transit Trade to 10% and 5% respectively (from the existing 25% and 10%) by 30 June 2025.

Both sides agreed to exchange trade delegations and participate in exhibitions.

In order to enable Afghan authorities to make appropriate arrangements for Afghan returnees, Pakistan agreed to repatriate not more than 500 illegal Afghan/ACC holders per day.

Pakistani officials also agreed to establish a Compliant Cell in M/o Interior and in Provinces on 24/7 basis to address any complaints received from returning Afghans.

Agreed to establish a Committee to receive complaints regarding any legal properties belonging to Afghan returnees.

Afghan returnees are allowed to take along personal household items, except contrabands.

Dar extended an invitation to Acting Afghan Foreign Minister to pay a visit to Pakistan in near future. Amir Khan Muttaqi accepted the invitation.

No doubt the Pahalgam incident has serious implications not only for the relations between Pakistan and India but also for the peace and stability of the region including Afghanistan.

For the past many years, the relations between the two countries have continued to decline at a fast pace. Since the BJP came into power under Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, India has followed a strategy of isolating Pakistan internationally and regionally, as part of the broader agenda. The timing of the Pahalgam attack on the verge of a high-level US visit, Pakistan amid internal and economic turmoil, Pakistan’s relations with other neighbours far from ideal and India’s premeditated propaganda against Pakistan just after the news of the incident broke out affirms credence to Pakistan’s apprehension that Pakistani leadership believes may be a false flag operation.

In the aftermath of Pahalgam, both countries have announced their reactionary measures and counter-measures. Already low-level diplomatic engagement including the size of the Embassies has been further reduced. India has announced suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, indicating its intention to harm Pakistan’s water share despite the fact that legally India cannot unilaterally withdraw from this international treaty under World Bank guarantees.

Pakistan has publicly stated that any such measures on the Indus Water Treaty will be considered an act of war. Pakistan has also closed its air space for Indian aircraft and suspended any trade that is still happening with India. People’s movements have been totally stopped and those already visiting have been asked to leave. Beyond that India is increasing military jingoism to create further difficulties.