Pakistan’s power play at the SCO

As Pakistan hosted the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, the country found itself at a critical juncture with significant implications for its future. The SCO, a powerful regional bloc, brings together nine influential member states, including China, Russia, India, Iran, Pakistan, and the Central Asian Republics (CARs). Collectively, these nations represent 41% of the global population and about 23% of the world’s GDP, positioning the SCO as a major force in regional politics and economics. For Pakistan, being at the helm of this summit was an opportunity laden with both promise and challenges.

Pakistan’s strategic geographic position as a gateway to the Arabian Sea remains one of its greatest strengths. For the landlocked CARs, rich in natural resources, Pakistan offers critical access to international markets, and this connectivity holds the potential to boost Pakistan’s own economy. The summit showcased Pakistan’s central role in regional transport and trade networks, and if leveraged effectively, could translate into significant economic growth. The possibility of increased trade, investment in infrastructure, and collaboration in sectors like technology and agriculture offers Pakistan a route to both economic expansion and job creation.

Security cooperation also took center stage, with Pakistan’s experience in combating terrorism proving to be a valuable asset. Its active role in the SCO’s Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (RATS) highlights how Pakistan can contribute to regional stability, especially as security threats like extremism and cybercrime grow. However, ensuring that Pakistan’s contributions are not overshadowed by the larger players, China and Russia, remains a delicate balancing act. Strategic alliances, particularly with the CARs, will be crucial in ensuring Pakistan’s influence within the organisation.

On the diplomatic front, the summit allowed Pakistan to engage with both allies and adversaries, particularly India. While bilateral issues like Kashmir were not formally on the agenda, the mere presence of both countries in the same room provided a glimmer of hope for easing tensions. Moreover, Pakistan used the summit to deepen ties with China and Russia, positioning itself as a key player in multilateral forums.

Economically, the SCO opens up new avenues for Pakistan beyond its partnership with China through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Collaboration on energy projects like the TAP (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan) pipeline and investment in diverse sectors such as energy and agriculture could reshape Pakistan’s economic landscape. Strengthening ties with the CARs also presents opportunities for expanding trade and positioning Pakistan as a regional hub.

On the global stage, Pakistan took the opportunity to push for climate action. With the country highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, Pakistan led discussions on the need for climate financing, sustainable development, and regional cooperation in disaster resilience. The summit provided a platform to highlight Pakistan’s challenges and advocate for stronger collective action on climate change, which could attract global attention and aid.

However, internal political instability remains a significant challenge. Ongoing governance issues could hamper Pakistan’s ability to fully capitalize on the opportunities the SCO offers. Additionally, navigating the dominance of China and Russia within the organisation poses a diplomatic challenge, as Pakistan must ensure its voice is not drowned out by these major powers. Forming strategic alliances with smaller members like the CARs will be essential in maintaining influence within the SCO.

Finally, Pakistan’s participation in the SCO must be balanced with its relations with the West. The SCO is often seen as a counterbalance to Western alliances, and Pakistan must carefully navigate its involvement to avoid appearing antagonistic toward the West. Framing its participation as a step toward regional cooperation rather than a pivot away from Western ties will be key in maintaining diplomatic equilibrium.

In the aftermath of the summit, Pakistan stands at a crossroads. The potential for enhanced diplomatic relations, expanded economic cooperation, and leadership on regional issues like climate change is significant. However, the challenges of internal instability, managing SCO power dynamics, and balancing relations with the West loom large. If Pakistan can navigate these complexities with a clear strategic vision, this summit could mark a turning point in its regional and global standing, setting the stage for deeper integration, stability, and diplomacy in the years to come.